Forget piddly 25-50 point interest rate hikes. The real pain will start June 1st. Fed will start reducing its balance sheet. (Explanation in comments)
(media.greatawakening.win)
💥 B O O O O O M 💥
What does this mean fro someone buying a house in that time frame?
You can always refinance later, but if the dollar is collapsing any buying power you saved up will evaporate.
Best to keep some of the savings in precious metals and wait out the storm.
Heck, they're artificially holding down the silver prices. They're essentially subsidizing your cost to buy.
Yeah, btw when it goes too down the local mint mysteriously "runs out of silver" and refuse to sell 🤣
But seriously, the answer to "how to survive the storm" is right in front of our faces!
This is a very important question and the answer depends on so many factors.
Also, I am not a financial adviser and everything I say is pure speculation on my part.
The Fed was pumping money for the past 2 years, and using this money to buy, amongst other things, mortgage backed securities (MBS). (Yes the same ones that caused 2008 collapse).
This means the banks were making crazy loans to any tom dick and harry, since they could just bundle the mortgage, sell it to Fed and make a cool buck.
Now if FED indeed does QT, they will stop buying MBS and possible even start onloading them. A lot of bad loans will come to light, a lot of loans will default. A lot of people wont be able to get new loans, and overall there is a good chance that the house prices will take a massive correction (thats probably an understatement).
So in my opinion, buying a house right now is like buying a house in 2006/2007 just before the GFC. There are valid reasons to do it - like park your wealth in fixed assets, and you already have a lot of silver and gold, or you are selling existing property and need to purchase new ones for tax or whatever reasons.
But for the most people, it would be far better to hang tight and let the storm hit, and pick up properties at pennies on the dollar when the crash fully happens.
Also, taking a variable rate mortgage is extremely dangerous right now. Who knows how quickly interest rates will be hiked going forward?
Thanks for the info, I'm asking because I have been interviewing for jobs in Florida and may be making the move soon if something pans out.
Don't move away from family right now. No one knows how this is going to play out. But if it goes very bad you're going to need to consolidate with family and trusted friends. Even a 20k pay raise won't make up for having an extra pair of hands in a dire situation. Consolidate on all fronts!
Good luck fren! Not knowing anymore about your situation, I would say if I were you, I would find a job where I can easily afford the rent for at least a year, save up as much as I can during that time and hang tight for the storm.
Mortgage rates WILL go up, count on that at a minimum. However in the near term, maybe around 3 months give or take, expect the housing market to slow down some depending on where you are. Some of these crazy selling prices might get reined in, who knows.
The bigger issue for most I think will be that we will start seeing layoffs and businesses fail. QT ideally needs to be done slowly....remember how people say about central banks printing money out of thin air? Yes that's their job however in this case they will be deleting money out of thin air. You usually wouldn't want to do this at the same time interest rates are rising, but that's exactly what's been happening lately. I think it's going to be too much all at once and when you have economic/banking models that make sense on paper hit real markets with people, businesses and emotions involved, I believe it's going to get real messy.