180k house to 1 million. 800/mo rent to 2800/mo.
(media.greatawakening.win)
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This bubble will go on, most likely, for a lot longer than you think it might.
Obviously this could go either way. But here is my rationale for why the pain is going to continue: We are at war.
We are at war, and this is an information war, an idea war, a war for your mind. And folks like Vanguard and Black Rock (they are basically the same thing, in my view) are on Team Evil. And want to put you into a renting reality.
"The Year is 2030 and you own nothing."
Yep. That is what they are doing.
So real estate values will remain within 10% of their current valuations, despite the rate rise, for the next six months or so. Perhaps even more. Because for Black Rock, they are thinking about these assets (homes) like a bond, and their window is 30 years, and they are also planning on getting the US gummint to subsidize them. So... you are not competing to purchase this home against another family.
You are competing against The Machine™.
This, I believe, is the primary reason home prices are skyrocketing. It doesn’t make sense for any other logical reason. This isn’t a normal market where normal factors are influencing prices. The housing market, just like the stock market, is being severely manipulated by institutional investors and bad actors. Unfortunately, I also think it’s going to go on longer than we all think / hope.
We sold our house in a major metro area last year and made a killing, but because home prices are still high where we moved (FL), we are still paying a ton when you count in mortgage, taxes, insurance. At least we were able to get locked into a super low interest rate. We tried to wait a year and rent, but with rents skyrocketing also, it actually is cheaper to own right now for us at least.
There is also Cleanest Dirty Shirt money too.
Folks who have ill-gotten or legally-gotten gains from outside the USA will continue to pile into this market, buying homes. Nobody stops them, so they will continue. They jack up the prices of CA real estate, but increasingly real estate in other places as well.
By far, though, the biggest problem is Black Rock/Vanguard. Those folks are tryna put y'all back in chains, like Biden promised.
P.S. Of all possible places, FL is a good one to be. Make sure you have food and guns and ammo and walkie talkies. And I am not even joking.
I should add something to wrap your noggin around.
The mortgage interest rate is irrelevant.
Why? Because Blackrock borrows at 2% from institutional investors. They don't do anything so base as to go get a mortgage, like you great unwashed heathens (in case you think I am slagging you off, nope. I am one of the unwashed heathens too). They also can afford to just pay cash. And because their business cases is a 30 (or perhaps even 40) year business case, and because they are planning on getting subsidies from the US gummint and also raising the rent on you whenever they feel like it at a rate that would make your eyes bleed ... the price of the home is almost irrelevant. Pay 130% of the asking price? Sure. No problem. It makes sense for them. Just not for you.