Seth Keshel combined his excess votes map with the mules!!!! BQQM NCSWIC
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2000Mules.com
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Personally I think even THAT is a high end estimate. I'd say it's probably closer to 90-10 (95-5 on the low end, 80-20 on the high end, with 90-10 being a pretty good middle ground).
I say 85-15, given the proximity of liberalism to college campuses and how many of those we have spread throughout the country. My soft prediction, though, is that once the college bubble bursts, it'll go closer to 90-10 with a few liberal strongholds hanging around (see: Boulder, CO; Austin, TX; Asheville, NC; San Francisco, CA).
I'd wager that even the examples you said are probably at least "pink" in terms of political alignment. The college campus thing is usually overblown. Most people don't really understand how small the college population is. Even the largest of colleges only have 20K students. So take a city with a million people, and have 20K of that be liberal brainwashed college students, and that's literally 2% of the city's population. So hardly enough to turn it blue.
I'll concede that Austin, TX has a good chance of being "pink" in terms of politics*, but the other cities I name checked have a solid reputation of people moving there specifically because they feel free to let their liberal freak flags fly. I think that even after this ship rights itself again, there will still be a few liberal strongholds around as there always have been, since people naturally crave being around their own kind.
I don't agree. The number of college students in the US has grown in the past thirty years with the accessibility of student loans and these places aren't strongholds of liberalism, they're strangleholds due to these students being pumped straight through the k-12 system into college without any chance to gain real world working experience. I don't give the system more than five years at the most, but I also don't discount its effects either. Typically the only time a college town is truly conservative is during the summer, when all the students are gone. XD
*I won't put money on this, but I have a hunch that Portland is not only red, but the original residents there are going to put in an effort to take their city back once all of this blows over. Just something I've gathered from people I know who used to live in the area.
Well you're not wrong, people DO move to some of these places because of their reputation so they can feel like they're among like minded individuals, but I maintain my position. Remember, when this all of this over only 4-6% will still be lost and liberal. Ergo, unless you have ALL OF THEM congregate in like, 4 cities. There won't be enough of them collectively turn any major city blue, based on population size and percentages.
As for the college thing, I don't know what to tell you. The total enrollment numbers for every college in the US is public info, the 20K number I threw out applies to all but the largest colleges, but for argument's sake let's use the literal largest college in the country, Texas A&M.
Texas A&M, as of now, has 72,982 students. College Station, the city in which the college lies, has a population of 120,511. Brazos county, the county the college lies in, has a population of 233,849.
So using basic math, the student population of Texas A&M makes up 60.56% of the city's population, but only 31.2% of the counties population. So on the surface, yes you appear to be right that this city would be "blue" based on it's massive student population (not that they should be voting in a place where they don't live full time and only go to school, but that's a different point). However, this assumes EVERYONE who goes to Texas A&M is a lefty. Which obviously isn't true.
Let's assume a low end estimate for conservative students of 80-20% in favor of a left wing tilt, and a high end of 65-35% with a left wing tilt. Using the low end estimate, the leftist college students make up 48.45% of the city's population and 24.96% of the county's population. So already we're now at the point where they're no longer enough to turn the city or county blue by themselves.
Going further and using the high end estimate we find that they make up 39.36% of the city's population, and 20.29% of the county's population. And I'm using rather conservative estimates here when you consider that we now have proof that colleges lie and inflate their student population numbers to gain more funding (like what's been revealed happens in california).
So with all that in mind, and keeping in mind this is the literal largest college and college town in the country, it's reasonable to say that most college towns aren't blue without cheating either.
Also, just a little side note. The number of college AGE people has increased, but the number of UNIVERSITY students has decreased. The numbers you usually see are inflated by including trade schools and apprenticeship mediators. Universities are dying off, and in the last few years, many have actually closed permanently due to lack of funding and subpar enrollment rates.
Where I live, the Democrats harness the college vote in spring elections for property tax increases to pay for increases in government spending.