https://energyskeptic.com/2020/giant-oil-field-decline-rates-and-their-influence-on-world-oil-production/

Preface. Of the roughly 47,500 oil fields in the world, 507 of them, about 1%, are giant oil fields holding nearly two-thirds of all the oil that has ever been, or ever will be produced, with the largest 100 giants, the “elephants,” providing nearly half of all oil today. Since the 1960s, the world has consumed more oil than what has been discovered, and the average size of new oil fields has declined, leaving us heavily dependent on the original giant oil fields discovered over 50 years ago(Aleklett et al. 2012).

From the Conclusion section:

These findings have large implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base – giant oilfields – will decline more rapidly. In the extreme, a potential 10% annual decline in Ghawar would be very challenging to compensate and would create severe problems for Saudi-Arabia and the world. The future behaviour of the remaining giants, especially in OPEC, will be a key factor in future oil supply. Based on the decline behaviour of giants, decline rate estimates for world oil production are possible because of the large influence of the giants. Many studies have shown that smaller fields, condensate, and NGL will decline at least as fast or faster than giant oilfields, once the onset of decline is reached (CERA, 2007; Höök and Aleklett, 2008; IEA, 2008). Consequently, we believe that there is a strong basis for believing that giant oilfields can be used to set a floor for future decline rate assumptions. In conclusion, this analysis shows that the average decline rate of the giant oil fields have been increasing with time, reflecting the fact that more and more fields enter the decline phase and fewer and fewer new giant fields are being found. The increase is in part due to new technologies that have been able to temporarily maintain production at the expense of subsequent more rapid decline. Growing average decline rates have also been noted by IEA (2008). The difference between using a constant decline in existing production and an increasing decline rate is significant and could mean as much of a difference of 7 Mb/d by 2030 (Figure 13). By 2030 the production from fields currently on stream could have decreased by over 50% in agreement with IEA (2008). The struggle to maintain production and compensate for the decline in existing production will become harder and harder. Our conclusion is that the world will face an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high but also increasing. [Bold added, throughout]

Comment by Narg: It is possible to create oil from precursors just as it is possible to create gold from lesser metals. The Nazis made oil from coal for their war machine. Why aren't we doing this now (in any real volume)? For the same reason we don't use particle accelerators or reactors to create gold: the cost is prohibitive.

It is possible that new tech will be developed to create oil economically, but the methods discussed in the 32-year-old answersingenesus.org article have yet to bear fruit so far as I know.

Natural creation of oil may happen much faster than traditionally thought but even if so, oil fields DO decline and eventually the cost to produce a barrel from the field exceeds the market value of the barrel . . . and production stops. (And when the ENERGY cost to produce a barrel exceeds the energy IN the barrel, then only market distortions can make it seem worthwhile to continue pumping the oil).

New, more cost-effective extraction tech can make a depleted field economically productive again, but I haven't seen anything solid that shows depleted fields "filling back up." Natural generation (abiotic or otherwise) of oil seems to happen on longer timeframes than will be useful in this or the next several generations.

The US has a LOT of oil remaining to be exploited, but the picture world-wide looks less positive. On the other hand, a massive drop in global population (which we seem in the early stages of) would lead to serious demand destruction, potentially extending the period of adequate oil production.

Just my opinion from what I've seen.