Literally what the title says. I'm curious what everyone thinks will happen with this topic. I was watching a death stranding critique and they talked about "drone syndrome", and how in the game, automation was banned because despite everyone getting some form of UBI, the mere fact that everyone had nothing to do caused waves of mass depression and suicide out of a lack of feeling needed.
I find this to be a pretty realistic outcome in all honesty. I've always wondered how we'll deal with such problems since we all know massive amounts of tech that has been held from us is going to be handed over to the public square post cabal. I'd assume that includes advanced AI, robotics, etc. Stuff that would make full automation of entire industries not only viable, but incredibly easy and profitable.
Which of course sounds good, but in all due reality would be incredibly detrimental to actual people. If 50%+ of all jobs are replaced by automation, then we're really not much better off then we currently are economically as a nation, or a people. And this applies to pretty much every country.
And before anyone starts with the whole "Automation will create new industries" or "learn how to code" or any of the other typical responses, I'm just going to point this out. Not everyone is technologically inclined. Some people work better with their hands. Mechanics, craftsmen, plumbers, electricians, construction workers, factory workers, oil rig workers, gas well workers, etc. This even extended to desk jobs too. For example, do you think they would try to eliminate things like accountants with advanced AI that can do your taxes for you?
Contrary to what most seem to think tech jobs are not the majority in any nation. In fact, in nearly every nation on the planet, skilled and unskilled labor jobs are the overwhelming majority when it comes to types of employment. If we were to start eliminating such jobs, then 90%+ of the global population is suddenly jobless with no way of obtaining employment since there's only so many software and hardware engineers that would be needed to maintain the automated system.
Even if you start implementing some kind of UBI (something that isn't feasible and completely contrary to free markets and capitalism while being socialist at its very core concept), then what? People have no means of lifting themselves up from whatever circumstances they're born into. No forward momentum or upward mobility. We'll still end up in caste system where you're either a literal slave wage (literally, not the meme) or you're lucky enough to know someone or be born into a family with enough connections to get you in with one of the few thousand human based jobs in the country.
Personally I see that there would either be an outright ban on it via an international treaty (break this treaty and your country is cut off from importing or exporting to literally any other nation on the planet so it can actually be enforced), thus avoiding the problem altogether. Or there'd be some kind of tax incentives for companies and corporations to maintain a certain percentage of their "work force" to be actual humans. Like give them X amount of tax credits for every 5% or 10% of the company workforce that is an actual person for example.
Regardless, it's a problem that we'll probably have to tackle, otherwise we'll just end up back where we are right now, with a slightly different mess.
There will never be a robot Renaissance in the form of humanoid bots.
There will be algorithms to augment, enhance and hijack biological entities.
There's not enough lithium to support mass cordless robotics, especially when plenty of biomass exists that is more efficient.
The next revolution in AI robotics will not be synthetic, it will be cybernetic.
Animals (including humans) are the perfect ready made vessel for augmentation.
Cloud computing is cheaper than individual processor based computing at the cybernetic level. WiFi 5g is king over individual radiofrequency emitters in cyborgs.
The question is who will hold the keys and the collar of the cybernetics. Will they be subscription based, open source or imposed as chains of slavery?
Will entire classes of humans be reduced to butlers, hive mind nodes in a server, or cogs?
Will Spot some day dual function as a hot spot?
Will bacteria be integrated as a 16k display on your iWatch?
Will biomech armies be cloud computed with voluntary/involuntary service from percentage based loan of human brain power under contract?
Will cults, movements and organizations arise that are literal hive minds?
So many questions.
Exporting manufacturing to China was a very telling step to where the future lies.
I wrote a short book about a society in the future where the protagonist must survive in a world dominated by bots.
The bots steal hand outs with fake identities, drive the social narrative and impersonate people they replace.
People are crowded into megacities, but separated by a thin wall amplified by the vastness of cyberspace that exists between them.
Reminds me of Westworld.
There have been a lot of automation waves, and arguably they have all been a net positive. Water wheel for milling leading to machine tools to help build the steam-engine, internal combustion engine, electricity, the transistor, the integrated circuit and the internet.
Which isnt to say thats any guarantee that any other innovation will be compelled to be positive. Plenty nowadays surely falls under the banner of slave-tech. Cell phones, QR codes and the soft-prison walls of arbitrarily-forbidden travel, shopping, and social contact is surely one such application.
Rome 2000 years ago at the height of its power had all the basics to enter the industrial age at the time, sufficient mathematics, education levels, society, manufacturing and artisan-base, and wealth to make the investment. They had the visionaries, inventors and philosophers. What held it back were the indentured slave labor force - building a waterwheel would displace hundreds of people, what would be done with them then? There's no motivation for process improvement if the displaced workers will cause societal unrest, and are cheap or even free.
So essentially the same point that is being repeated today. As long as people have the liberty to make choices, and if they want to, go off-grid and raise chickens, tend their farm, and live in a cabin they build with their own hands, that seems fine to me. Just gotta be vigilant in rejecting all the slave-techs though.
There’s literally thousands of factors at play that could change your prediction but I’ll entertain the speculation as it can be a fun exercise.
There be Opportunity to revive some Artisan Trades back into mainstream professions. Blacksmiths, Tanners, Cobblers, Furniture makers etc.
We could see a meaningful revival of the arts leaving the post modernist Crap in the dust if people had the time to put towards artistry that’s otherwise spent on a dead end job.
Gaming industry has recorded fairly steady growth. Year on year. Even as other entertainment industries have lagged. They can spend more then the NRA lobbying the Feds to keep their nose out of it as well.
Some speculation at the moment shipping companies will readopt masted sailing ships to move some cargos. As current circumstances have highlighted the somewhat precarious nature of fuel supplies for the massive container ships. As well as their faults.
New Jobs and fields will likely come into being or expand as our civilian presence in space expands. Crews for ships. Asteroid prospecting etc.
People will still need to repair all the fancy schmancy robots. Thus equaling jobs.
Hell. Having an entirely human staff could be a selling point of a business in the future.
Military will likely be expanding. Current ongoing reorganization necessitates growing the ranks. And supposing we go interstellar. Then there will be a need for Colonial Forces.
Getting into the conspiratorial realm. Supposing Aliens or inner earth civilizations exist. There will likely be need for a diplomatic corps. Not to mention further Military/Security work. As humanity in general is an ever paranoid bunch.
Any hidden or secret Technology. Can change circumstances dramatically. Some “influencers” for instance allege hidden tech exists that would propel us into a Star Trek esc future. I don’t pretend to know or really care. I’m just using it as a for example of potential possibilities.
Hell people can be fairly inventive at creating jobs for themselves if given the opportunity. I know one group of people who are in essence “Mercenaries” for MMOs. People will contract them to help in clan wars, go raiding with them etc.
Everything ultimately hangs on how humanity as a whole chooses to react to the changing circumstances. People can be a very fickle bunch. But I wouldn’t be so quick to predict doom and gloom stemming from Automation.
Yes a lot of soul sucking drone office jobs should be automated out of existence. So much human creativity is wasted on them. AI tools are already starting to enable more creativity such as AI text generation art generation etc.
And on space colonization you would want as much automated as possible. Humans would still be able to go but automation would be an enabler for colonization. As much life support services on earth are done by trees and the biosphere but in space there is nothing to keep you alive.
Just thinking about self driving cars if they ever get perfected that would change whole paradigm. Disabled and blind people would be able to travel easier. Also cars sit most of day and could be driving other people around. In some areas I could see an Uber like system where people wouldn’t need a car. Or if you did own it, it could drive itself to the shop where automated robots would fix it overnight.
You could rethink whole layout of streets and cities.
Also automation of house chores hasn’t even been done yet to much extent. Imagine a Jetsons future where all that stuff is done so you have more free time to do other stuff.
I have hated what I do for a living my whole life. It has very slowly been given over to computers. I am lucky enough to be close to retirement, whatever that will mean, so the computers can have it. I am hoping that when the change happens we all find that we can finally be free. I do not need government or anything they bring to the table. Give me back all of the taxes they have stolen from me my whole life and I will have plenty. Give me a piece of land that the government now "owns" and let me have a farm. So the problem is not simply that tech will take our jobs. The problems we have are all do to politicians and governments stealing our lives. Change that and we will be fine.