"The best estimates I've seen show the total early vote (In-person + Mail) has decreased by a whopping 60% compared to 2020, which appears much higher than we'd expect from a presidential to midterm cycle. Early voting in many states will close soon.
Worse for Democrats, their share of the early vote has decreased too. At this point in 2020, Democrats held an estimated 15% advantage in the early vote. Right now, Democrats hold a national lead of about 12%.
In crucial battlegrounds, Democrats have seen significant tightening.
AZ
2020: D-44/R-34
2022: D-40/R-37
FL
2020: D-42/R-37
2022: D-38/R-43
NV
2020: D-43/R-35
2022: D-40/R-38
OR
2020: D-48/R-26
2022: D-42/R-34
Democrats are maintaining their 2020 % share in some states like IA, NM, and PA. But because the volume of early vote is considerably lower, it raises the specter that Democrats may not be able to withstand a large GOP turnout on ED, which appears likely at this point."
- Election Wizard
https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1587805796833845252?t=OvFe48AR0ZeC5h7ALNzOdQ&s=19
Maintaining their percent share, but raw vote totals are way down for them.
Democrats have to run up big leads because republicans swamp the polls on ED.
The majority of Republicans will turn out on the ED.
People do not understand how the cheat works. As Trump has said it's not widespread. It's only in very small areas that it happens. You also need infrastructure for cheat and they were still overwhelmed in 2020. Trump beat the cheat and they had to shut down and take weeks to claw back the deep pit.
They don't have the infrastructure in place for that kind of cheat. Even worse they don't even have enough actual votes. The cheat was just a safe guard. They do still need to actually turn out enough of their voters.
Lot of the polling predictors are now scrambling to change predictions to GOP takes house and senate. They know what that early voting data means. They're rushing money in to save Pat Murray. She should be safe. It should be impossible to defeat her, but they're nervous and rushing in millions. They claim "it's just a precaution".
Riiiight. You're wastings millions and millions on what should be lock.