"The best estimates I've seen show the total early vote (In-person + Mail) has decreased by a whopping 60% compared to 2020, which appears much higher than we'd expect from a presidential to midterm cycle. Early voting in many states will close soon.

Worse for Democrats, their share of the early vote has decreased too. At this point in 2020, Democrats held an estimated 15% advantage in the early vote. Right now, Democrats hold a national lead of about 12%.

In crucial battlegrounds, Democrats have seen significant tightening.

AZ

2020: D-44/R-34

2022: D-40/R-37

FL

2020: D-42/R-37

2022: D-38/R-43

NV

2020: D-43/R-35

2022: D-40/R-38

OR

2020: D-48/R-26

2022: D-42/R-34

Democrats are maintaining their 2020 % share in some states like IA, NM, and PA. But because the volume of early vote is considerably lower, it raises the specter that Democrats may not be able to withstand a large GOP turnout on ED, which appears likely at this point."

• Election Wizard

https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1587805796833845252?t=OvFe48AR0ZeC5h7ALNzOdQ&s=19