Really hard, when the Chinese admit that it is theirs and the origin was within mainland China. Most times, reality is best taken at face value.
This was a thought-provoking event for me. At the outset, I thought the Biden delay was mere prevarication in service to China, and a face-saving stratagem against the possibility we had no means of intercepting the balloon. China wins.
But, now, in light of recent information, it turns out that the military was aware of the surveillance potential of the balloon, and likely determined that it was a better course to let it proceed---but button up our facilities and deploy all our signals intelligence and countermeasures assets to (1) listen in on whatever the balloon was reporting back, and (2) possibly jamming the uplink to prevent its use by China. And then terminate its flight at a point where its mission was over, no civilians were in danger of the crash impact of the huge payload assembly, and a relatively intact recovery was possible. China loses.
It is as though the military was alert, rational, convinced Biden of a course of action that was prudent (though not popular) and Biden went along with it. Very, very interesting. A reality that does not fit any theory---which is the way that reality tends to work when humans are key components of the event.
So now, I am inclined to be more circumspect in drawing conclusions about events. The oft-repeated advice here of waiting 2 or 3 days is good advice.
Really hard, when the Chinese admit that it is theirs and the origin was within mainland China. Most times, reality is best taken at face value.
This was a thought-provoking event for me. At the outset, I thought the Biden delay was mere prevarication in service to China, and a face-saving stratagem against the possibility we had no means of intercepting the balloon. China wins.
But, now, in light of recent information, it turns out that the military was aware of the surveillance potential of the balloon, and likely determined that it was a better course to let it proceed---but button up our facilities and deploy all our signals intelligence and countermeasures assets to (1) listen in on whatever the balloon was reporting back, and (2) possibly jamming the uplink to prevent its use by China. And then terminate its flight at a point where its mission was over, no civilians were in danger of the crash impact of the huge payload assembly, and a relatively intact recovery was possible. China loses.
It is as though the military was alert, rational, convinced Biden of a course of action that was prudent (though not popular) and Biden went along with it. Very, very interesting. A reality that does not fit any theory---which is the way that reality tends to work when humans are key components of the event.
So now, I am inclined to be more circumspect in drawing conclusions about events. The oft-repeated advice here of waiting 2 or 3 days is good advice.