I'll probably be crapped on by some, but that's fine. This is an emotional thing so I get that some people are having a hard time staying calm when they're worried about themselves and their families.
Thankfully I live in an area that is basically geographically protected from all this, so the only thing I had to worry about was the wind, which is why I've been monitoring cloud and wind patterns obsessively the past few weeks. But that threat has long since passed (I'll get to that later). So since I can provide a moderately objective view on things, I decided to put my autism into overdrive and put in some extra effort. Mainly since I'm annoyed by everyone on here, truth social, twitter, etc. spreading these doomsday prophecies about the event.
Now let me preface with this. THIS WAS NOT ACCEPTABLE IN ANY WAY AND SOMEONE NEEDS TO SWING FROM A ROPE FOR IT. But it's not as bad as is being made out. It's bad, but not a doomsday scenario.
So let's start with the very first thing no one seems to understand. IT IS THE OHIO RIVER AND THE OHIO RIVER ALONE THAT IS CONTAMINATED.
All these maps you see on social media and on here, are water basin maps. That covered area (except for the Ohio River itself), is almost entirely tributaries. Tributaries are inside of drainage basins. Meaning they FEED INTO the river, and are safe from contamination from the Ohio River because it's impossible for the chemicals to flow back upstream due to gravity.
Case in point, this map:
https://files.catbox.moe/1k4obt.jpg
I drew over the river and tributaries brighter colors so you can more easily see them. But that map puts my first point into perspective. Literally 95% of the area everyone keeps saying holds 10% of the US population, or 74 Million People, or "the most fertile farmland in the country" is part of the tributary system and doesn't get water directly from the Ohio River itself.
So there's one point made. Let's get to point two. The Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi River.
The Appalachians basically act as a giant barrier for this entire disaster. Case in point, this Map:
https://files.catbox.moe/jdq9nc.jpg
As we all know, water flows to lower elevations. Ergo this fear that everything is going to somehow spread beyond the Ohio River are looking at this wrong. It can't spread east very far since the Appalachian Mountains make that impossible. Instead we should worry more about what'll happen when it finally feeds into the Mississippi river. Because that's where this is heading.
Her's a map:
https://files.catbox.moe/8i4tfr.png
So as you can see, the Ohio River will eventually feed into the Mississippi. Which is where the real worry should be, but literally no one has mentioned this yet. Right now, the catastrophic damage is basically contained to East Palestine, with moderate damage being done to communities right on the the edge of the Ohio River in Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia. But once it hits the Mississippi then it starts hitting Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi before finally being dumped into the gulf.
So if we can contain it before it hits the Mississippi then we can minimize the damage, which brings me into my next map and point. Dams:
https://files.catbox.moe/wkla5w.jpg
There are no less than 16 different dams we can use to at least slow down and control the spread of this along the Ohio river, upstream from East Palestine. So all is not lost yet, in that regards, but the fact this hasn't even been entertained yet shows that these evil pieces of crap are trying to make this worse than it has to be.
Finally, the groundwater, farmland, and rain. I know that outside of those immediately in harms way, this is everyone's biggest concern. So I present you with 2 maps, 2 scientific studies, a weather radar, and a distance calculator:
https://files.catbox.moe/05x3hr.jpg
https://files.catbox.moe/gpzo05.jpg
https://open.maricopa.edu/physicalgeology/chapter/14-2-groundwater-flow/
https://wellwater.oregonstate.edu/groundwater/understanding-groundwater/groundwater-movement
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/wind-flow
Alright, now with all that available, let's discuss everyone's biggest concerns. The Ohio river runs across the southern border of Ohio, and more or less forms the border with West Virginia and Kentucky. Now at first it may seem like the elevation of ground water reservoirs in Ohio leads credence to the theory that Ohio groundwater is screwed, but that's not the case for multiple reasons.
First of all, notice how there seems to be deeper groundwater table on the southern and eastern part of the state where the Ohio River and more importantly, east palestine are. This is a good thing, as it means that to contaminate the ground water in the rest of the state outside of the immediate disaster area, it'd have to flow upwards, which again, the law of gravity prevents from happening.
And even if the water DOES somehow travel upwards, the scientific studies I provided both point out that it takes, years, sometimes decades or centuries, for groundwater to naturally travel more than a few miles. So the majority of the state is safe in the short-medium term. And hopefully we can clean this mess up completely before it even becomes a factor for most of the state.
Now let's look at the second map. The prime farmland map from Ohio Department of Agriculture. I admit, it's an older map, but I had a hard time finding one up to date, and it still proves my point regardless.
All the prime farmland in Ohio is near the great lakes in the north and northeast portion of the state. There is SOME farmland that will probably be affected by this, but overall, the Cornbelt is safe since it's both geographically separated, and the ground water contamination is far enough away from the disaster area and river that contamination would take literal decades or centuries from the groundwater, if it's even possible, which I don't believe it is.
Finally, the weather radar and distance calculator. The doom cloud is everyone's next biggest concern, and I can safely say, it's already floating over the Atlantic and has probably been dispersed over the ocean. Clouds travel anywhere from 30-100 miles per hour in a straight line depending on the type of cloud, and the furthest land point the doom cloud would have effected based on wind patterns was DC.
DC is roughly 370 Miles from East Palestine, so at the lowest possible travel speed it would have taken 13 days to reach the atlantic. The derailment occured 14 days ago today. And keep in mind, this is at THE LOWEST POSSIBLE SPEED. It's entirely possible that the cloud traveled faster and ended up in the atlantic earlier.
Likewise, I've been monitoring rain patterns over the areas that the doom cloud would have traveled over, and from what I can tell, there was almost no rainfall on land, outside of a few small storms in Pennsylvania. And it's debatable whether they were even doom cloud rain or not, since I have no means of confirming or denying it.
But regardless, the amount of rainfall in the doom cloud path, was negligible, and if it WAS doom cloud rain, the amount that fell was so insignificant that it's debatable if it would have a long term effect on the local land and wildlife. Keep in mind, these same chemicals were spilled in New Jersey in smaller amounts, and the long term effects were basically non-existent.
So in conclusion, yes this is bad. Yes it's horrible people are suffering. It will probably effect a few 100K people. But this is NOT the apocalyptic, end of the world scenario it's being made out to be. Millions of people are not going to die from chemical poisoning. The second largest break basket in the United States is not now barren land. And half the groundwater in the Eastern US is not now unsafe.
Also, as a sidenote, I'm sorry for using Maricopa University and University of Oregon studies as a reference, but I it's all I could find on short notice, and I have other things I have to do IRL. I just didn't want to start making claims without anything to back it up.
EDIT: I found a few NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Maps from February 7th and 8th that show the Doom cloud and it's trajectory, that further support my point on the doom cloud. Though I will admit, it spread further north than what I was expecting when I was tracking it. All the way into Maine and Canada. So there may have been more rain from it than I originally estimated. It's something for fellow pedes to look into. Though I still don't think that it would be enough to hurt anything long term even if it did rain since it would have been heavily diluted at that point.
If anything, this just means we should be more concerned about about the North East than the South East, since it's more likely they will be effected medium to long term than the Ohio and Mississippi river basin.
First of all, there's a difference between localized wind, and wind currents. Wind currents always follow the same pattern and hardly, if ever change. The only time they ever change is with large cyclical events, like El Nino. So even if the wind changes in your localized area, the overall wind drift is still going to push it in a specific, and predictable direction.
Second of all, I never claimed to be an expert on literally anything here. So I won't comment on anything I don't know about.
Thirdly, of course if you live in any of the effected areas you should have your water tasted, that's common sense.
EDIT: Accidentally hit save before I was done.
Fourthly From my understanding all the chemicals that were dumped, have a boiling temperature of at least 82 degrees Fahrenheit. And there's not a single body of water in North America that gets that hot, even in the summer. So none of this will evaporate with the water.
Fifthly, I'll give you a comparison. You say this stuff is toxic at 1 ppm (parts per million), so anyone who even touches the water or soil is a walking hazmat. Yet, for decades nearly every major river and lake in the USA has had an abundance of mercury contamination. Mercury is toxic at 2 ppb (parts per billion). So it's even more toxic, and there's more of it in the water. Yet, you never hear of anyone being a walking hazmat after walking through a contaminated river, or swimming in a contaminated lake, etc.
As for the rest of the points, well as I said, I'm not expert, so I won't comment since I have literally no idea, and I'd rather not comment on something I have literally zero knowledge over.
But overall, I maintain that while this is an environmental disaster, it's less of an end of the world scenario, and more chemical land based version of the BP oil spill.
Still horrible and someone needs to pay for it, but not a doomsday scenario.
Well it wasn't meant to convey that. People in the immediate area SHOULD be worried and take every precaution possible. This isn't the time to be complacent.
Now as for your counter-counter points (enjoying the civil discussion for once lol), I will stand corrected. One of the four Chemicals has a boiling point of 7 degrees. The other three however, are all well over 100 degrees. Funnily enough, the only one with a boiling point below 82 was the one you specifically mentioned lol. Though you are right, to become water soluble it has to be boiled to 82 degrees. So I'll be honest, I have no idea what that means. Will the surrounding water keep it cool enough, or will the residual heat from the water allow it to boil? This is something someone who actually knows what they're talking about should look into, and I'll be the first one to admit that. I'd assume that for it to form another doom cloud, it'd have to reach 82 degrees and become water soluble in order to combine with the water molecules that form the rain clouds, but as I said, I won't say that for certain since it's outside of my field of knowledge.
But you for a few sauces, so here's one for each confirmed chemical to be part of the train derailment.
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/2-Butoxyethanol#section=Odor
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/2-Ethylhexyl-acrylate#section=Color-Form
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/Butyl-acrylate#section=Odor
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/Vinyl-Chloride#section=Odor
For reference, just control + F and search boil to get past all the science nerdery. As for the oil comparison, I admit not the best, but I can't really think of anything else to compare it to since it's NOT a Chernobyl event. And that's what I mean by the doomsday stuff. A lot of people seem to be laboring under the impression that the cabal has basically won with this one event. That it doesn't matter if we win the war, since they'll get their revenge from beyond the grave because they've irreparably damaged our ecosystem and destroyed half of the most productive cropland in the United States, all while irreparably contaminating our water supply and air supply, thus ensuring we'll all die a horrendous slow death and ensuring their revenge from beyond the grave.
That's simply not what's happened here. I don't doubt it was essentially a cabal terrorist attack under the guise of an "accident", but it's not an end of civilization event, like so many seem to be under the impression it is.
Finally, the mercury comparison. You're missing the point. I was pointing out that we've had massive amounts of mercury in every major body of water for decades now. And we consume it regularly. What I missed because I had a brain fart (I'm tired and sleep deprived, sue me), is that the FDA (spoiler alert they're feeding you poison), allows for an "acceptable" mercury content of 1 ppm of mercury for seafood and drinking water.
So every time you drink water from a river or eat seafood from a river, you're probably getting 500 times the toxic dosage of Mercury, as per the EPA and FDA's own guidelines.
The reason I made the mercury comparison, is because it's much more toxic that the chemicals being dumped, and many people consume of it to kill them 500 times over on the regular. With that in mind, and as u/SuckaFree pointed out, the sheer amount of water in the Ohio and Mississippi, and eventually the gulf if it gets that far, will dilute this stuff to such an extent, that, you'll probably die from mercury poisoning before you die from Vinyl Chloro-whatever poisoning.
East Palestine is screwed. Period. There's no argument to be made there. It'll soon become a dead ghost town in the next decade or so unless a miracle occurs. But everywhere else along the Ohio and Mississippi river isn't anywhere near as effected.
Also, found a few new maps I'll add to the post. Feel free to look since they show the wind pattern for February 7 and February 8 that the doom cloud was taking as per the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Which shows my point about the doom cloud trajectory. It hadn't' quite spread to DC at that point, but well halfway through New York at the time.
Though I will admit, I did not expect or see anything in my monitoring the past couple weeks that would have led me to believe it would hit Canada, but apparently it was all the way up into Maine and parts of Canada right before it finally hit the Atlantic Ocean and got caught up in the wind streams.
Just a minor correction for point 4. A "boiling point" is the condition when a liquid's vapor pressure is equal to the ambient pressure (sea level standard). Evaporation takes place all the time. We have all seen puddles of rainwater evaporate and go away. Has the temperature ever been 212 deg F? Never. We would be dead if that were so, and there would be no natural evaporation.
A boiling point of 82 deg F is a volatile chemical that will evaporate quickly. We're all familiar with acetone and how quickly it evaporates? It has a boiling point of 133 deg F, far higher than 82 deg F. The left-over volatiles will all evaporate.
As for point 5 (toxicity), you have to be careful what you are citing. The mean lethal concentration for phosgene (a vinyl chloride combustion product) in air is 500 ppm. The recommended exposure limit is 0.1 ppm. It is probably unlikely that anyone will suffer death from direct exposure. Dilution makes all the difference.
Not a chemistry expert, so I'll concede to the obvious chem major lol. But in my mind, that just makes my point even more true, even if it wasn't in the way I originally thought. Water dilution is one thing, but air dilution......well, there's a reason hydrogen is literally the most abundant element on earth. There's so much volume in the open atmosphere, that it's virtually impossible to die from air based toxin exposure unless your on ground zero to a gas bomb or toxic fume fire, in which case I guess East Palestine is screwed and those people need to do everything in their power to get justice.
And if I'm understanding you right, you're saying the Vinyl Chloride gas isn't as toxic as we've been thinking it was, and you need roughly 5,000 times more than we've been quoting for it to effect you in gaseous form? Or am I misunderstanding whta you've said? Cause if that's right, then this is a whole lot less of a problem than I thought outside of ground zero, and possibly some of the areas the doom cloud was in.
It's the old story that the dose makes the poison. We ingest things commonly that do not kill us---but could at the wrong dose. Oxygen, for example. Breathing pure oxygen at sea level pressure can kill us. Salt is another example. We would die from drinking salt water. Water is another example. We would die from drinking too much (dilution of the nerve electrolytes).
Same thing in reverse for poisonous substances. At a low enough level, they can be innocuous. The poison gases used in World War I were only left to dissipate in air, but they did not last very long at all. The poor biosphere may munch on them. UV light may break them down. I'm not a toxicologist, but the answer is to read up on the subject and pay attention. (Don't always trust your nose. It takes 4 times the lethal level before you can smell phosgene. And one of the first signs of hydrogen sulfide poisoning---rotten egg smell---is the disabling of the sense of smell.)