I'll probably be crapped on by some, but that's fine. This is an emotional thing so I get that some people are having a hard time staying calm when they're worried about themselves and their families.

Thankfully I live in an area that is basically geographically protected from all this, so the only thing I had to worry about was the wind, which is why I've been monitoring cloud and wind patterns obsessively the past few weeks. But that threat has long since passed (I'll get to that later). So since I can provide a moderately objective view on things, I decided to put my autism into overdrive and put in some extra effort. Mainly since I'm annoyed by everyone on here, truth social, twitter, etc. spreading these doomsday prophecies about the event.

Now let me preface with this. THIS WAS NOT ACCEPTABLE IN ANY WAY AND SOMEONE NEEDS TO SWING FROM A ROPE FOR IT. But it's not as bad as is being made out. It's bad, but not a doomsday scenario.

So let's start with the very first thing no one seems to understand. IT IS THE OHIO RIVER AND THE OHIO RIVER ALONE THAT IS CONTAMINATED.

All these maps you see on social media and on here, are water basin maps. That covered area (except for the Ohio River itself), is almost entirely tributaries. Tributaries are inside of drainage basins. Meaning they FEED INTO the river, and are safe from contamination from the Ohio River because it's impossible for the chemicals to flow back upstream due to gravity.

Case in point, this map:

https://files.catbox.moe/1k4obt.jpg

I drew over the river and tributaries brighter colors so you can more easily see them. But that map puts my first point into perspective. Literally 95% of the area everyone keeps saying holds 10% of the US population, or 74 Million People, or "the most fertile farmland in the country" is part of the tributary system and doesn't get water directly from the Ohio River itself.

So there's one point made. Let's get to point two. The Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi River.

The Appalachians basically act as a giant barrier for this entire disaster. Case in point, this Map:

https://files.catbox.moe/jdq9nc.jpg

As we all know, water flows to lower elevations. Ergo this fear that everything is going to somehow spread beyond the Ohio River are looking at this wrong. It can't spread east very far since the Appalachian Mountains make that impossible. Instead we should worry more about what'll happen when it finally feeds into the Mississippi river. Because that's where this is heading.

Her's a map:

https://files.catbox.moe/8i4tfr.png

So as you can see, the Ohio River will eventually feed into the Mississippi. Which is where the real worry should be, but literally no one has mentioned this yet. Right now, the catastrophic damage is basically contained to East Palestine, with moderate damage being done to communities right on the the edge of the Ohio River in Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia. But once it hits the Mississippi then it starts hitting Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi before finally being dumped into the gulf.

So if we can contain it before it hits the Mississippi then we can minimize the damage, which brings me into my next map and point. Dams:

https://files.catbox.moe/wkla5w.jpg

There are no less than 16 different dams we can use to at least slow down and control the spread of this along the Ohio river, upstream from East Palestine. So all is not lost yet, in that regards, but the fact this hasn't even been entertained yet shows that these evil pieces of crap are trying to make this worse than it has to be.

Finally, the groundwater, farmland, and rain. I know that outside of those immediately in harms way, this is everyone's biggest concern. So I present you with 2 maps, 2 scientific studies, a weather radar, and a distance calculator:

https://files.catbox.moe/05x3hr.jpg

https://files.catbox.moe/gpzo05.jpg

https://open.maricopa.edu/physicalgeology/chapter/14-2-groundwater-flow/

https://wellwater.oregonstate.edu/groundwater/understanding-groundwater/groundwater-movement

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/wind-flow

https://distancecalculator.globefeed.com/US_Distance_Result.asp?vr=apes&fromplace=East%20Palestine,%20OH,%20USA&toplace=Washington,%20DC,%20USA%20(District%20of%20Columbia)

Alright, now with all that available, let's discuss everyone's biggest concerns. The Ohio river runs across the southern border of Ohio, and more or less forms the border with West Virginia and Kentucky. Now at first it may seem like the elevation of ground water reservoirs in Ohio leads credence to the theory that Ohio groundwater is screwed, but that's not the case for multiple reasons.

First of all, notice how there seems to be deeper groundwater table on the southern and eastern part of the state where the Ohio River and more importantly, east palestine are. This is a good thing, as it means that to contaminate the ground water in the rest of the state outside of the immediate disaster area, it'd have to flow upwards, which again, the law of gravity prevents from happening.

And even if the water DOES somehow travel upwards, the scientific studies I provided both point out that it takes, years, sometimes decades or centuries, for groundwater to naturally travel more than a few miles. So the majority of the state is safe in the short-medium term. And hopefully we can clean this mess up completely before it even becomes a factor for most of the state.

Now let's look at the second map. The prime farmland map from Ohio Department of Agriculture. I admit, it's an older map, but I had a hard time finding one up to date, and it still proves my point regardless.

All the prime farmland in Ohio is near the great lakes in the north and northeast portion of the state. There is SOME farmland that will probably be affected by this, but overall, the Cornbelt is safe since it's both geographically separated, and the ground water contamination is far enough away from the disaster area and river that contamination would take literal decades or centuries from the groundwater, if it's even possible, which I don't believe it is.

Finally, the weather radar and distance calculator. The doom cloud is everyone's next biggest concern, and I can safely say, it's already floating over the Atlantic and has probably been dispersed over the ocean. Clouds travel anywhere from 30-100 miles per hour in a straight line depending on the type of cloud, and the furthest land point the doom cloud would have effected based on wind patterns was DC.

DC is roughly 370 Miles from East Palestine, so at the lowest possible travel speed it would have taken 13 days to reach the atlantic. The derailment occured 14 days ago today. And keep in mind, this is at THE LOWEST POSSIBLE SPEED. It's entirely possible that the cloud traveled faster and ended up in the atlantic earlier.

Likewise, I've been monitoring rain patterns over the areas that the doom cloud would have traveled over, and from what I can tell, there was almost no rainfall on land, outside of a few small storms in Pennsylvania. And it's debatable whether they were even doom cloud rain or not, since I have no means of confirming or denying it.

But regardless, the amount of rainfall in the doom cloud path, was negligible, and if it WAS doom cloud rain, the amount that fell was so insignificant that it's debatable if it would have a long term effect on the local land and wildlife. Keep in mind, these same chemicals were spilled in New Jersey in smaller amounts, and the long term effects were basically non-existent.

So in conclusion, yes this is bad. Yes it's horrible people are suffering. It will probably effect a few 100K people. But this is NOT the apocalyptic, end of the world scenario it's being made out to be. Millions of people are not going to die from chemical poisoning. The second largest break basket in the United States is not now barren land. And half the groundwater in the Eastern US is not now unsafe.

Also, as a sidenote, I'm sorry for using Maricopa University and University of Oregon studies as a reference, but I it's all I could find on short notice, and I have other things I have to do IRL. I just didn't want to start making claims without anything to back it up.

EDIT: I found a few NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Maps from February 7th and 8th that show the Doom cloud and it's trajectory, that further support my point on the doom cloud. Though I will admit, it spread further north than what I was expecting when I was tracking it. All the way into Maine and Canada. So there may have been more rain from it than I originally estimated. It's something for fellow pedes to look into. Though I still don't think that it would be enough to hurt anything long term even if it did rain since it would have been heavily diluted at that point.

If anything, this just means we should be more concerned about about the North East than the South East, since it's more likely they will be effected medium to long term than the Ohio and Mississippi river basin.

https://files.catbox.moe/b29kkf.webp

https://files.catbox.moe/xcxxr1.webp