You are right. No crazy left winger would vote for Manchin. But that wouldnt be the target. The target would be the boomer and gen x blue dog democrat types where its a family tradition to vote Dem since Roosevelt. Theres many out there. Its possible to use a split the vote strategy on the Dems. Stifle some of that fake vote too and they crumble.

I think Manchin has seen the light, been turned or is otherwise willing to work for the good of the People. Hes pissed they do nothing but lie to him when they need his vote and ignore him when they dont. I could see him doing this. Enthusiastically even.

Answer to your second question is zero. Emphatically.