VIDEO OF Nova Kakhovka dam explosion
(truthsocial.com)
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A huge explosion sort of puts finis to the "neglect" hypothesis. Intelslava also pointed out that the aftermath would be a much lowered river level, to the benefit of anyone attempting an amphibious river crossing (e.g., the Ukrainians).
As for the nuclear powerplant, no real harm in prospect. According to Intelslava, the cooling water is largely a closed loop between settling ponds and the reactor system. Reservoir water would be needed only to make up for evaporative loss.
Yes, the ZNPP has a special pond that is walled off from the Dnieper. I have seen that on the maps.
I also agree about the explosion vs. cracking due to "neglect" analysis. The collapse could be argued to be due to the near-continuous Ukrainian shelling which has been reported, even by MSM in the West. I realize that the Russians also blew up the rail connection across the dam. More damningly (kek), there was even a report of Ukrainian plans to blow that dam and cause wide-spread flooding. Weird how such reports are memory-holed.
The 'neglect' theory is a sneaky way to pin the disaster on the Russians, stating that they are in 'control' of the Soviet dam. This claim is because the Soviets built it, therefore the Russians must maintain it. However, this neglects the fact that the Ukrainians were a Soviet as well.
In my opinion, the dam crossed the Dnieper between Ukrainian- and Russian-held territories. No-one could repair or maintain it, because the other side would start taking potshots at the maintenance staff. Take into account also that the water levels were at an extremely high level, because dams further up-stream had been released to 'relieve' pressure. This could be due to the very high rainfall that Ukraine has experienced this Winter, that also delayed the fabled 'Winter/Spring' Offensives.
In any case, the dam was damaged several times in the last year - which may demonstrate intent.
The other vector of analysis is a legal one - cui bono? Arguably the most affected group of people are the Crimeans, who stand to lose water through that contested canal that feeds from a point just above that dam. We know that the Ukrainians were set on punishing the Crimeans for not wanting to bow to the Nazi overlords, and this reasoning cut off their water supply, while Zelenski laughed about it on TV, in 2014. The Russians repaired the canal in 2022, so, one could see who wants to destroy that repair, and who wants to maintain the canal.
Good analysis.
Cheers