I was an aware boy during the Cuban Missile Crisis, which I estimate as being more serious than the Ukraine situation. In Ukraine, we have absolutely nothing to fear if the U.S. does not make a fatal move. In Cuba, there was consternation about what it all meant. (It didn't help that the U.S. had started the poker game with a hand consisting of forward-deployed IRBMs in Turkey, Italy, and the UK.) But consternation is a long way from The Precipice. Kennedy was quick to withdraw the IRBMs for a mutual relinquishment of such deployments. Everybody breathed a sigh of relief and went back to normal things. And Kennedy was assassinated.
My own thinking is that the U.S. would have to cross a red line in Ukraine, laying us open to a submarine-launched hypersonic missile targeting the White House. That would get everyone's Adam's apple up in their throats in a hurry and would qualify as a "precipice."
I don't trust the "precipice" metaphor. If you get close enough to the edge of a precipice, the ground could shear off with you on it. You don't WANT to get that close. (On a road trip, I once stopped at an overlook to view the Black Canyon of the Gunnison River in Colorado. Walked up to the waist-high concrete barrier and looked over. Straight down, 1800 feet in a sheer drop, lost in shadow. It made my toes curl. I backed away from that brink very carefully.)
I think the "close shave" metaphor is better. Some event that does not truly harm the masses, but can easily be seen for the possibility of being much, much worse. ("Whew! We dodged a bullet!") And the existence of a second chance, to do better, galvanizing us to tidy up our act.
I was an aware boy during the Cuban Missile Crisis, which I estimate as being more serious than the Ukraine situation. In Ukraine, we have absolutely nothing to fear if the U.S. does not make a fatal move. In Cuba, there was consternation about what it all meant. (It didn't help that the U.S. had started the poker game with a hand consisting of forward-deployed IRBMs in Turkey, Italy, and the UK.) But consternation is a long way from The Precipice. Kennedy was quick to withdraw the IRBMs for a mutual relinquishment of such deployments. Everybody breathed a sigh of relief and went back to normal things. And Kennedy was assassinated.
My own thinking is that the U.S. would have to cross a red line in Ukraine, laying us open to a submarine-launched hypersonic missile targeting the White House. That would get everyone's Adam's apple up in their throats in a hurry and would qualify as a "precipice."
I don't trust the "precipice" metaphor. If you get close enough to the edge of a precipice, the ground could shear off with you on it. You don't WANT to get that close. (On a road trip, I once stopped at an overlook to view the Black Canyon of the Gunnison River in Colorado. Walked up to the waist-high concrete barrier and looked over. Straight down, 1800 feet in a sheer drop, lost in shadow. It made my toes curl. I backed away from that brink very carefully.)
I think the "close shave" metaphor is better. Some event that does not truly harm the masses, but can easily be seen for the possibility of being much, much worse. ("Whew! We dodged a bullet!") And the existence of a second chance, to do better, galvanizing us to tidy up our act.