There are many science papers claiming numbers around 97%. So it's "science"! However, we all know that there are lies, damned lies and statistics!
The first paper I came across was by Doran and Zimmerman (2009). They sent out surveys to 10,257 "Earth scientists". They got replies from 3,146 but they considered answers from only 77 people for this question. 75 of them agreed. Exactly how they chose those 77 people to believe is somewhat of a mystery.
I have links to several papers but The Science of Statisticulation sums up most of them. They are all seriously flawed in a variety of creative ways.
They did make the mistake of asking the members of the American Meteorological Society a couple of times. The first time they asked only 52% thought that the warming was mainly human. A far cry from 97%. The next year they made sure they got an answer they preferred! Such is statistics.
There is another famous paper by John Cook et al and they decided what the answer was going to be first. Their own data fails to show the 97% figure but, strangely, they do not include the data in the paper. It is on a website somewhere. It turns out that only 0.3% of the papers they looked at said man was mainly responsible. Cook et al also wrote up another paper which summarised the existing 97% papers, including their own, and concluded that it was 97% of scientists!
98%? I think it is inflation - it used to be 97%!
There are many science papers claiming numbers around 97%. So it's "science"! However, we all know that there are lies, damned lies and statistics!
The first paper I came across was by Doran and Zimmerman (2009). They sent out surveys to 10,257 "Earth scientists". They got replies from 3,146 but they considered answers from only 77 people for this question. 75 of them agreed. Exactly how they chose those 77 people to believe is somewhat of a mystery.
I have links to several papers but The Science of Statisticulation sums up most of them. They are all seriously flawed in a variety of creative ways.
They did make the mistake of asking the members of the American Meteorological Society a couple of times. The first time they asked only 52% thought that the warming was mainly human. A far cry from 97%. The next year they made sure they got an answer they preferred! Such is statistics.
There is another famous paper by John Cook et al and they decided what the answer was going to be first. Their own data fails to show the 97% figure but, strangely, they do not include the data in the paper. It is on a website somewhere. It turns out that only 0.3% of the papers they looked at said man was mainly responsible. Cook et al also wrote up another paper which summarised the existing 97% papers, including their own, and concluded that it was 97% of scientists!
Thanks so much for the informative reply! 👍
No problem. It was my previous hobby before 2016!
I'll bet they have a couple dart boards in their backroom (one would be all they needed) because global...climate change is soooo complicated..