He basically said with modern surveillance, the warship is obsolete. Remember the classic board game "BattleShip" where you try to guess where the enemies ships are? You say "E3" or whatever until you figure out where the ships are located.
Well, now there is no more guessing. So imagine playing Battleship when you can see each other's ships. The meaningless game would be over quickly as 100% of the shots would be hits.
It seems impossible for USA to launch another D Day type of invasion in today's world. With over the counter phone tracking programs (like that seen from 2000 Mules), the Russians and Chinese will immediately know that 5000 troops have left Fort Brag and are now aboard transport ships heading towards Eurasia. Drones launched from many miles away or submarines will quickly send any ship to the bottom of the ocean.
Of course Russia or China will have the same problem, and their ships will not be any safer. But the advantage will belong to those that do not have to travel 12,000 miles to wage war.
This is just speculating on warships alone. It gets much uglier if non military ships become open game. How many oil carriers does USA rely on per year? I know little about Russia's import and export partners, but my guess is they are less likely to cross the deep blue sea than those that USA relies on.
If we do go to war with Russia, it will be far from a walk in the park. Based on our heavy reliance on sea transportation for military and commerce, it seems like USA will lose before it even begins. I think some of the most militant of arm chair generals may become muted if the learn of 10,000 US troops lying at the bottom of the ocean, and their gas prices goes to $10 a gallon.
Any military experts here that can comment?
Honest opinion. There’s been a shitload of speculation and theories about warfare. Don’t confuse one opinion from someone, no matter how impressive his credentials, with definitive certainty because he also says other things you like.
People with all sorts of ranks, fancy degrees, and impressive titles for instance have been saying the Tank is obsolete since just after WW2. Because now we had big scary new toys in the form of improved Anti-Tank Weapons, Precision Munitions etc. Thus far that opinion hasn’t actually played out. Though it continues to persist.
People with all sorts of ranks, fancy degrees and impressive titles said that Aircraft Carriers would never surpass Battleships.
Etc. So on and so forth.
This take isn’t a good one. No offense to you OP. But for this tactic to be viable they’d need to use cheap Disposable Drones and by the hundreds if not thousands. Given AA and Missile Defense Systems Navy ships have. Not even factoring in any carrier escorts and subsequent air cover.
And the cheap disposable drones have thus far had extremely limited range. Meaning it likely need to be launched by ships/surfaced submarines within sight of the convoy. Which is a predictably bad idea if you wish to use those ships as launch platforms again.
The expensive Drones that would have the range to launch from distant bases and hit a convoy in route to Eurasia. Function much like Jets. In that they need infrastructure to maintain them, are rather expensive, and require runways.
And by virtue of the expense in them. Most sane commanders wouldn’t be willing to waste them by the dozens in suicide runs on Troop convoys.
Not to mention the possibility of just annihilating the Drone bases.