The dollar could not survive as the world's reserve currency without requiring the United States to run ever-growing deficits.
There are so many logica problems with this assertion, so lets break them down one by one.
It starts with the unsaid assumption that being a world reserve currency is a desirable thing. The only people who would want their currency to become the world reserve currency are imperialists who want to financially dominate the world. The only people who would allow such a thing are those who are ignorant, and destined to be enslaved.
So assuming, for some reason, we still want a world reserve currency, the causal relation ship with ever-growing defecits is reverse:
A benign world reserve currency would not require ever-growing defecists. Always print dollars only based on how much Gold reserves you have, and make the dollars fully convertible, and you will have a reserve currency system without the need for ever-growing deficits.
However, if the intention is to dominate the world, then you require ever-growing deficits (to run wars and psyops around the world - like vietnam war, korean war, the original New Deal, socialist agenda, welfare state etc etc). And if you require ever-growing deficits, you then require control of a world reserve currency - a malign one, one that is FIAT.
So the relationship is:
Want to dominate the world - which requires - Unlimited fiat currency - which requires control of a world reserve currency - which requires enforcing it on the world through artificial scarcity (like petro dollars) and with the blade of the sword.
you have a centrally issued currency. Crypto solves that problem, it's issued internationally
No matter where the currency is issued, the problem would still remain, as long as currency is issued without being underpinned by something of real value. The problem is NOT who issues it, but what the issued currency represents.
A FIAT usd represents the trust and faith in the US government - which is worth toilet paper.
A crypto represents a algorithmic scarcity and expended energy / algorithmic concensus. I will leave it to people to figure out what its really worth.
Ultimately, there is ONLY ONE thing in the world of real value. Everything else is just based on perceived value. That ONE thing is the human labour.
However, if the intention is to dominate the world, then you require ever-growing deficits (to run wars and psyops around the world - like vietnam war, korean war, the original New Deal, socialist agenda, welfare state etc etc). And if you require ever-growing deficits, you then require control of a world reserve currency - a malign one, one that is FIAT.
You also forget the Cantillon effect which is something to keep in mind as well once you become the world reserve currency.
The labor in the country that issues the new world reserve currency immediately becomes the most expensive labor. This creates a demand for foreign trade.
How The Cantillon Effect Kills The Economy | Uneducated Economist
Again, Cantillion effect (just like Triffin's Dilemna) exposes that a world reserve currency is unsustainable. The answer is not to replace one world reserve currency with another, but rather to over haul the entire system (which is what is going on) so that there is no more world reserve currencies, and their evil effects on the world.
Lets finish debating the Triffin's dilemna first before delving deeper into this, if you still feel this needs to be delved into deeper.
You need to look deeper into Triffin's Dilemna. If it was so desirable to be the worlds reserve currency China would've been gunning for it by now but they purposely inflate their currency to keep themselves under US dollar.
Ultimately, there is ONLY ONE thing in the world of real value. Everything else is just based on perceived value. That ONE thing is the human labour.
You're right to an extent but how do you safely store that value on an efficient way? Gold and silver is safe but not efficient. Fiat isnt safe but is efficient.
Neither of those allow you to secure your wealth without 3rd party involvement when making international purchases. Someone can also always fudge the numbers.
Okay lets do that, lets go to the source and understand exactly what Triffin was saying (and more importantly doing)
Testifying before the U.S. Congress in 1960, economist Robert Triffin exposed a fundamental problem in the international monetary system.
If the United States stopped running balance of payments deficits, the international community would lose its largest source of additions to reserves. The resulting shortage of liquidity could pull the world economy into a contractionary spiral, leading to instability.
If U.S. deficits continued, a steady stream of dollars would continue to fuel world economic growth. However, excessive U.S. deficits (dollar glut) would erode confidence in the value of the U.S. dollar.
This is the real Triffin Dilemna for a world reserve currency. And here is what he proposed as solution:
Triffin proposed the creation of new reserve units. These units would not depend on gold or currencies, but would add to the world's total liquidity.
What Triffin did was, to claim that if there is a world reserve currency it has to be FIAT currency.
If we were to believe this claim, and agree that Triffin Dilemna is true, then for any distributed crypto currency to become a world reserve currency, it is neccesary to be able to issue unlimited amount of cryptos and make the liquidity available for the countries as they need to expand.
This is the exact opposite of what the original video is claiming. In fact, according to Triffin, crypto currencies can never become world reserve currencies without causing the international economy to collapse due to lack of liquidity.
And, if we are to believe that there is a crypto currency that can act as world reserve currency, without allowing any central entity to issue the cryptos, then we are essentially saying that Triffin was wrong.
The reality is, Triffin was half correct and half wrong. He was correct that USD as world reserve currency was unsustainable.
He was wrong in the solution for this - making it FIAT. The real solution would have been to push for a complete overhaul of the international economic system, decouple all countries from relying on a single reserve currency, and encourage each country to issue their own, resource backed, currencies.
This would have meant a massive slowdown in the world economy, which is a good thing because that artificial growth fueled by fiat is what has brought out world to this unsustainable mess.
The real solution would have been to push for a complete overhaul of the international economic system, decouple all countries from relying on a single reserve currency, and encourage each country to issue their own, resource backed, currencies.
Yes I agree with this.
And, if we are to believe that there is a crypto currency that can act as world reserve currency, without allowing any central entity to issue the cryptos, then we are essentially saying that Triffin was wrong.
I also think this is true, there was no crypto in Triffin's time. There is no single country that crypto is issued to. Triffin's Dilemna doesn't work with Crypto.
If we were to believe this claim, and agree that Triffin Dilemna is true, then for any distributed crypto currency to become a world reserve currency, it is neccesary to be able to issue unlimited amount of cryptos and make the liquidity available for the countries as they need to expand.
Not true. You can still have a crypto that is used by the majority of the world and is used as an exchange between currencies. It would also be kept in reserve by governments.
You can have all countries using resource based currencies but there won't be a central banking solution. Crypto will be much more voluntary since you can take the open source code and add to it and/or create a new crypto with the same layout. If something goes wrong with the crypto, it's much easier to remedy.
Not true. You can still have a crypto that is used by the majority of the world and is used as an exchange between currencies. It would also be kept in reserve by governments.
So when countries want to expand and require a lot more of this crypto, how will they go about issuing that?
There are so many logica problems with this assertion, so lets break them down one by one.
It starts with the unsaid assumption that being a world reserve currency is a desirable thing. The only people who would want their currency to become the world reserve currency are imperialists who want to financially dominate the world. The only people who would allow such a thing are those who are ignorant, and destined to be enslaved.
So assuming, for some reason, we still want a world reserve currency, the causal relation ship with ever-growing defecits is reverse:
A benign world reserve currency would not require ever-growing defecists. Always print dollars only based on how much Gold reserves you have, and make the dollars fully convertible, and you will have a reserve currency system without the need for ever-growing deficits.
However, if the intention is to dominate the world, then you require ever-growing deficits (to run wars and psyops around the world - like vietnam war, korean war, the original New Deal, socialist agenda, welfare state etc etc). And if you require ever-growing deficits, you then require control of a world reserve currency - a malign one, one that is FIAT.
So the relationship is:
Want to dominate the world - which requires - Unlimited fiat currency - which requires control of a world reserve currency - which requires enforcing it on the world through artificial scarcity (like petro dollars) and with the blade of the sword.
No matter where the currency is issued, the problem would still remain, as long as currency is issued without being underpinned by something of real value. The problem is NOT who issues it, but what the issued currency represents.
A FIAT usd represents the trust and faith in the US government - which is worth toilet paper.
A crypto represents a algorithmic scarcity and expended energy / algorithmic concensus. I will leave it to people to figure out what its really worth.
Ultimately, there is ONLY ONE thing in the world of real value. Everything else is just based on perceived value. That ONE thing is the human labour.
You also forget the Cantillon effect which is something to keep in mind as well once you become the world reserve currency.
The labor in the country that issues the new world reserve currency immediately becomes the most expensive labor. This creates a demand for foreign trade.
How The Cantillon Effect Kills The Economy | Uneducated Economist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPEtaXBMG6s
Again, Cantillion effect (just like Triffin's Dilemna) exposes that a world reserve currency is unsustainable. The answer is not to replace one world reserve currency with another, but rather to over haul the entire system (which is what is going on) so that there is no more world reserve currencies, and their evil effects on the world.
Lets finish debating the Triffin's dilemna first before delving deeper into this, if you still feel this needs to be delved into deeper.
You need to look deeper into Triffin's Dilemna. If it was so desirable to be the worlds reserve currency China would've been gunning for it by now but they purposely inflate their currency to keep themselves under US dollar.
What Is The Triffin Dilemma?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ghoJ0d3cTQ
You're right to an extent but how do you safely store that value on an efficient way? Gold and silver is safe but not efficient. Fiat isnt safe but is efficient.
Neither of those allow you to secure your wealth without 3rd party involvement when making international purchases. Someone can also always fudge the numbers.
Crypto changes the whole game.
Okay lets do that, lets go to the source and understand exactly what Triffin was saying (and more importantly doing)
This is the real Triffin Dilemna for a world reserve currency. And here is what he proposed as solution:
What Triffin did was, to claim that if there is a world reserve currency it has to be FIAT currency.
If we were to believe this claim, and agree that Triffin Dilemna is true, then for any distributed crypto currency to become a world reserve currency, it is neccesary to be able to issue unlimited amount of cryptos and make the liquidity available for the countries as they need to expand.
This is the exact opposite of what the original video is claiming. In fact, according to Triffin, crypto currencies can never become world reserve currencies without causing the international economy to collapse due to lack of liquidity.
And, if we are to believe that there is a crypto currency that can act as world reserve currency, without allowing any central entity to issue the cryptos, then we are essentially saying that Triffin was wrong.
The reality is, Triffin was half correct and half wrong. He was correct that USD as world reserve currency was unsustainable.
He was wrong in the solution for this - making it FIAT. The real solution would have been to push for a complete overhaul of the international economic system, decouple all countries from relying on a single reserve currency, and encourage each country to issue their own, resource backed, currencies.
This would have meant a massive slowdown in the world economy, which is a good thing because that artificial growth fueled by fiat is what has brought out world to this unsustainable mess.
Yes I agree with this.
I also think this is true, there was no crypto in Triffin's time. There is no single country that crypto is issued to. Triffin's Dilemna doesn't work with Crypto.
Not true. You can still have a crypto that is used by the majority of the world and is used as an exchange between currencies. It would also be kept in reserve by governments.
You can have all countries using resource based currencies but there won't be a central banking solution. Crypto will be much more voluntary since you can take the open source code and add to it and/or create a new crypto with the same layout. If something goes wrong with the crypto, it's much easier to remedy.
So when countries want to expand and require a lot more of this crypto, how will they go about issuing that?