I'll buy that there was some negligence. Guards commonly get complacent when the threats aren't real and if they're not constantly practicing. They probably get some "alert fatigue" too. Those systems are so freaking sensitive, they probably go out to investigate multiple times a day only to find it's just some kid who had been throwing rocks and they can't do anything about it because rules of engagement. It was right after a Jewish high holiday, people were celebrating. People get distracted by family plans and get lax.

All of that's very real and believable.

I fully believe those systems worked and the data was made available to Mossad and IDF. It's clear CIA knew. Egypt knew. Knew what exactly? That something was up. So IDF were given warnings. All of that is public knowledge. They probably get warnings around every high holiday because Islamists like to shoot their mouths off and make threats all the time. Again, "alert fatigue." So, it's very plausible that the people who were supposed to take notice and take it seriously just didn't.

The videos from the day of told a lot. Anyone with the wherewithal to do his job properly was quickly shot in a clearly prepared and trained assault. Hamas' fighters had good training. Those who did got caught with their pants down, in some cases literally, and ended up cowering, taken prisoner, or shot. Hamas still has 200 hostages that they didn't slaughter. The element of surprise and battle field initiative are real things that Hamas exploited well. The people on the ground had no warning and were totally off their guard.

It would not surprise me at all to hear such a thing was possible against a lot of Western militaries. We've gotten complacent. Our threats are largely hypothetical. We train, but we don't really live through real incidents much anymore. Mistakes get made because we're not in a combat mentality.

For the record, I think that the highest-ups, if they got warning at all, are ruthless enough to use it to their political advantage. Everything goes through that lens at those levels. It did in Vietnam. It does in every country. Hell, it happens in corporate C-suites all over the world. The big picture decision-makers are so disconnected from the day-to-day operations, they only seem to care about the big game until it blows up in their faces. I wouldn't doubt for a second that Netanyahu wanted an excuse to flatten Gaza, nor would I doubt the asshoes running the US gov't right now wanted a pivot away from Ukraine and a new Forever War.

I suspect the truth is gray, rather than purely black or white in this one.