Interesting. I doubt the Japanese will keep their debt ceiling at its current level. Pretty sad to see a first world economy being dictated to by a third world country. Better get out of the market for a while lest you see your capital decline like a turd in a toilet. Too bad a lot of retirees leave their monetary decisions to their mutual fund managers. Once the decline begins the retirees will not be able to get their money out because access will be curtailed.
Wait who is the 3rd world country in this case? Certainly not Japan but their keeping alive zombie corporations and Yield Curve Control policy by the Bank of Japan had irrevocably screwed them
Since you seem to have a finger on the pulse of the market, I'm guessing that, When do you think a financial stock market crash will occur? In the next month, six months or one year? Not wanting to predict doom, but just curious as to other folks' thinking on when it might happen.
That is what is being used to fund the governments insane spending, because when the government borrows money, they have to sell a US Treasury Bond backing that money. The US Treasury trades their Bonds for the cash in the Reverse Repo Market.
In the just 3 weeks the govt has borrowed $550 Billion+
The Reverse Repo Market has drained 100 Billion almost every week except the last one. That is buying Treasury Bonds and keeping the interest rates of them (yields) from shooting up further.
Japan who owns $1 Trillion of US Treasury Bonds is also on deaths door. Historically when Yen-to-Dollar is 150/$ then the Bank of Japan intervenes and sells some US Bonds to raise value of yen against the dollar. That's happened a couple of times this month.
When Reverse Repo runs out, shortly after Treasury Bonds are going to shoot through the roof. This will be the 2nd big crash that wipes out everything.
My Answer:
What do I think will happen? 2 crashes in stock market then devaluing dollar then CBDC
1st dip will be big enough most Boomers will think that was the crash and put all their money back in the stock market. I expect it around end of October - November before Thanksgiving from the way things are going. Boomers are important because they own about 70% of US Wealth and getting their wealth is the ultimate goal.
Govt will ramp up borrowing like crazy causing Treasury Bonds to crash in value and their interest rates to shoot up, possibly above the federal reserve base interest rate. Boomer money not in stock markets will go into Treasury Bonds falsely thinking they are a safe haven.
Banks go insolvent from decreased Treasury Bonds value and are unable to back up deposits. They go bankrupt selling anything they own to cover any costs they can, causing more supply of Treasury Bonds on market dumping price lower and yields higher. Govt keeps spending.
Reverse Repo runs out of money. Treasury bond values drop at insane levels and their interest rates shoot through the roof.
This will be the 2nd big crash that wipes out the rest of stock market and retirement money. This is the big boy to worry about. Physical cash will be very valuable at this point and it'll be the time to go spend your cash you have left. Gold and silver will spike up overnight and maybe a bit for crypto but it won't hit its peak yet.
Then the govt will keep borrowing but nobody will buy Treasury bonds. No worries, the Federal Reserve has a fix for that from a paper that came out in Jackson Hole, WI this summer
Presenting the Fed's Perfect Plan for U.S. Dollar Oblivion | BestEvidence
In this paper, the Federal Reserve and Govt solves the problem of having no Treasury Bond Buyers on the market. Currently the Federal Reserve can only buy Treasury Bonds that have been sold from the US Treasury. This paper suggests to do away with that and have the Federal Reserve directly buy Bonds from the US Treasury. This will double inflation increase as the Federal Reserve will have to print money to buy the Treasury Bonds and more money is printed for the US Treasury once the bonds are sold.
There will now be no incentive for the govt not to borrow to oblivion and the physical dollars will quickly become worthless so you'd better get rid of your cash by then. Gold/silver, Crypto, Bullets, Food, Resources.
People will have to come together and do whatever they can for each other to survive this mess. Crypto will shoot up in use at this time because of instant transaction, long distance payments, and exact pricing. This will eventually take over by the peoples choice.
Govt buildings will be burning, urban city dwellers starving, and the pain will be so bad that people beg for a CBDC to stop from starving. That is the Cabals bet and they will issue a CBDC at this time.
The foil to their plan will be gold/silver and ultimately crypto because the Cabal has less of their hands in crypto than gold/silver (central banks have been massively buying precious metals) and its more useable. They won't be able to control people conducting their own business and they will fail dramatically. I think military will get involved as well once the people choose against Central Banking and CBDC.
This is my best guess at the moment. I could be wrong, but as the govt actions play out over time, they become more predictable.
Thank you so much for your insite. You have comforting words for my heart, the best thing is my wife and I understand "where your are coming from" with your explainations. I agree the US will go through a very very tough time and a lot of Gen Zer's are dolts who don't have a clue about life. Glad I'm old enough to discern when good advise is being tossed my way. Once again, thank you for your reply!
Interesting. I doubt the Japanese will keep their debt ceiling at its current level. Pretty sad to see a first world economy being dictated to by a third world country. Better get out of the market for a while lest you see your capital decline like a turd in a toilet. Too bad a lot of retirees leave their monetary decisions to their mutual fund managers. Once the decline begins the retirees will not be able to get their money out because access will be curtailed.
Wait who is the 3rd world country in this case? Certainly not Japan but their keeping alive zombie corporations and Yield Curve Control policy by the Bank of Japan had irrevocably screwed them
Since you seem to have a finger on the pulse of the market, I'm guessing that, When do you think a financial stock market crash will occur? In the next month, six months or one year? Not wanting to predict doom, but just curious as to other folks' thinking on when it might happen.
Here's my answer:
Background:
January is the estimated time when the Federal Reserve - Reverse Repo Market runs out.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/
That is what is being used to fund the governments insane spending, because when the government borrows money, they have to sell a US Treasury Bond backing that money. The US Treasury trades their Bonds for the cash in the Reverse Repo Market.
In the just 3 weeks the govt has borrowed $550 Billion+
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1712217005992939952
The Reverse Repo Market has drained 100 Billion almost every week except the last one. That is buying Treasury Bonds and keeping the interest rates of them (yields) from shooting up further.
Japan who owns $1 Trillion of US Treasury Bonds is also on deaths door. Historically when Yen-to-Dollar is 150/$ then the Bank of Japan intervenes and sells some US Bonds to raise value of yen against the dollar. That's happened a couple of times this month.
When Reverse Repo runs out, shortly after Treasury Bonds are going to shoot through the roof. This will be the 2nd big crash that wipes out everything.
My Answer:
What do I think will happen? 2 crashes in stock market then devaluing dollar then CBDC
1st dip will be big enough most Boomers will think that was the crash and put all their money back in the stock market. I expect it around end of October - November before Thanksgiving from the way things are going. Boomers are important because they own about 70% of US Wealth and getting their wealth is the ultimate goal.
Govt will ramp up borrowing like crazy causing Treasury Bonds to crash in value and their interest rates to shoot up, possibly above the federal reserve base interest rate. Boomer money not in stock markets will go into Treasury Bonds falsely thinking they are a safe haven.
Banks go insolvent from decreased Treasury Bonds value and are unable to back up deposits. They go bankrupt selling anything they own to cover any costs they can, causing more supply of Treasury Bonds on market dumping price lower and yields higher. Govt keeps spending.
Reverse Repo runs out of money. Treasury bond values drop at insane levels and their interest rates shoot through the roof.
This will be the 2nd big crash that wipes out the rest of stock market and retirement money. This is the big boy to worry about. Physical cash will be very valuable at this point and it'll be the time to go spend your cash you have left. Gold and silver will spike up overnight and maybe a bit for crypto but it won't hit its peak yet.
Then the govt will keep borrowing but nobody will buy Treasury bonds. No worries, the Federal Reserve has a fix for that from a paper that came out in Jackson Hole, WI this summer
Presenting the Fed's Perfect Plan for U.S. Dollar Oblivion | BestEvidence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0u5h579ZeU
https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9726/JH_Paper_Duffie.pdf
In this paper, the Federal Reserve and Govt solves the problem of having no Treasury Bond Buyers on the market. Currently the Federal Reserve can only buy Treasury Bonds that have been sold from the US Treasury. This paper suggests to do away with that and have the Federal Reserve directly buy Bonds from the US Treasury. This will double inflation increase as the Federal Reserve will have to print money to buy the Treasury Bonds and more money is printed for the US Treasury once the bonds are sold.
There will now be no incentive for the govt not to borrow to oblivion and the physical dollars will quickly become worthless so you'd better get rid of your cash by then. Gold/silver, Crypto, Bullets, Food, Resources.
People will have to come together and do whatever they can for each other to survive this mess. Crypto will shoot up in use at this time because of instant transaction, long distance payments, and exact pricing. This will eventually take over by the peoples choice.
Govt buildings will be burning, urban city dwellers starving, and the pain will be so bad that people beg for a CBDC to stop from starving. That is the Cabals bet and they will issue a CBDC at this time.
The foil to their plan will be gold/silver and ultimately crypto because the Cabal has less of their hands in crypto than gold/silver (central banks have been massively buying precious metals) and its more useable. They won't be able to control people conducting their own business and they will fail dramatically. I think military will get involved as well once the people choose against Central Banking and CBDC.
This is my best guess at the moment. I could be wrong, but as the govt actions play out over time, they become more predictable.
Thank you so much for your insite. You have comforting words for my heart, the best thing is my wife and I understand "where your are coming from" with your explainations. I agree the US will go through a very very tough time and a lot of Gen Zer's are dolts who don't have a clue about life. Glad I'm old enough to discern when good advise is being tossed my way. Once again, thank you for your reply!
Sorry, had wrong link for the Reverse Repo, just fixed it.