30-year mortgage rates are near 8% with excellent credit. Interest rates have climbed for the past three months straight. The Fed is considering another interest rate increase for November and December, possibly pushing rates up to 8.5% or even 9%. The reasoning is that higher interest rates will "slow down inflation".
Home sales are at a 13-year low. Factor in the higher cost of insurance and the fact that property taxes are going up to unaffordable levels and the very high cost of labor and materials for home construction... and you have a real estate market that's going to crater.
I personally know several homeowners that had their homes listed for sale, but have removed them from the market in the past 2 months. They will wait and hold on to what they have for now. One real estate agent mentioned to a couple that they should keep their house off the market until at least middle of next year and then decide based on market conditions.
I'm suggesting that the U.S. economy is a three legged stool... and one of those legs is housing and private & commercial real estate. If it fails, the economy goes into a deep recession at best.
I live in a home built in the 70's and it's exactly right. Probably sold for $40k - $50k back then, it's 10x now and still rising.
I could rent my house for $4,000/mo and I would have a literal line of people begging to sign a 5+ year lease w/ a $20k security deposit by EOD today.
That's fucking absurd.
The market is grossly over-inflated by at least* 30-40% on average. And even that price adjustment is overly aggressive, but has to be based on inflation and The Fed's money printing addiction.