Black Swan - How can a Black Swan Event Occur - When Nothing They do Surprises us Anymore? Discuss? See Comments!
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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist, until they were discovered in Australia in 1697, and it then became reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.
A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain:
The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to the substantial role of rare events in historical affairs.
Con’t https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Like, like the sovereignty of God?
And His ways being beyond (way Way) our understanding?
👏👏👏
Surprises for us are vastly different than surprises for the sheep
True 🧐
Med Bed are real announcement from DJT would be one, as would a global Wardenclyffe Tower system already in place.
Turkey illusion is a cognitive bias describing the surprise resulting from a break in a trend, if one does not know the causes or the framework conditions for this trend. The concept was first introduced by Bertrand Russell to illustrate a problem with inductive reasoning.
The turkey designated for Thanksgiving is fed and cared for every day until it is slaughtered. With each feeding, its certainty or confidence that nothing will happen to it increases, based on past experience. From the turkey's point of view, the certainty that it will be fed and cared for again the next day is greatest on the night before it dies, of all days. Nevertheless, it is slaughtered that day, by the very person who cared for him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey_illusion