21
posted ago by Gandiva ago by Gandiva +21 / -0

Sending the issue back to the states has nothing, legally speaking, to do with whether certain states broaden their abortion options. Under Roe, 6 states already allowed abortion up to birth, and any other state could have done so had it chosen to by legislature or referendum. Since Dobbs, 1 more state, Maine, has effectively opened up abortion to the point of birth. The only real effect that overturning Roe has had on states broadening their abortion options is by causing a counter reaction to Dobbs in blue states that has pushed them to do what they might have just as easily done before Dobbs. In other words, "sending abortion back to the states" has ended up providing a net lowering of abortions in red states, while either leaving the blue states in their status quo, or provoking one of them to broaden its abortion laws, which they might have just as easily done before Dobbs.

Trump's position, therefore, is an overall win for opponents of abortion of all kinds, though not an outright victory for those who want it banned outright. Based on polls around the country, including within red states, outright bans are not what the majority of the electorate wants. If state legislatures continue to enact restrictions more narrow than the majority of their electorates agree with, they risk backlash in the form of popular referendums that re-expand the limits of abortion out beyond what the majority agrees with, such as Ohio did and probably soon Florida and Arizona will do.