“Israel” has a lot of different contexts.

One definition is “God’s people”, but that doesn’t mean an ethnic group so much as those who are obedient to His commands.

Some of the claimed Israel - the political nation are surely among Israel - the spiritual nation. Others are most certainly not.

In software development, you would call this “overloading an operator”, and “Israel” has at least 5 overloads, and the context is never obvious without clarification, with most people not even being aware of this issue. It causes a lot of “compiler errors”.

A lot of both evangelicals and alleged ethnic descendants will conceive that it means a lineage, which it can, but:

Matthew 3:9 “and do not think to say to yourselves, ‘We have Abraham as [our] father.’ For I say to you that God is able to raise up children to Abraham from these stones.