As it looks now, I see Russian control east of the Dneiper and then along the Black Sea coast through Odessa and including the ethnic Russian region of transnitria in Moldova. The Poles, Estonians and Lithuanians have been making rumbles about taking back areas they once controlled in western Ukraine and I think they have designs on a new Grand Duchy which they signalled by declaring that if the Russians made a breakthrough, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland would move into western Ukraine. And then you have regions in the southwest that are primarily ethnic Hungarian.

This area has a long history of armies marching through it to war. For 3 millennia control of different areas have passed through the Greeks, the Ottomans, the Kievan Rus (Cossacks), the Vikings, the Russian Czars, the Golden Horde, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Poland and the Hungarians. Slavic Europe and the Balkans have been a battlefield forever. They are at the crossroads between Christianity and Islam.

There was never a cohesive political entity called Ukraine until the Soviets cobbled it together from disparate pieces of its eastern bloc neighbors.