it's long but worth the listen
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I've been an engineer for 50 years. Misuse of the term drives me nuts. I always want to ask "What's the number? How do you calculate it?"
But, to your question, I'm afraid the answer is what has always been the motto of this page: Wait and see. No harm in repeating "intel" or rumor---for what it may be worth. I just get my teeth on edge when I see the logical fallacy of "possibly" => "probably" => "certainly" running riot here.