‘We’re gonna win, maybe bigger than anyone understands’.- Trump
(nitter.poast.org)
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Where are you getting these numbers?
Law of large numbers calculations using county populations. Tempered with other factors. I have been doing this ever since’76. Republicans confided in me back then that they just accepted the 3% as a cost of doing business such that the people would have confidence in the elections.
Is there anything online that you can point me towards so I can try to learn more about it?
That must be a hell of a task. How many thousands and thousands of counties did you have to go through in order to get numbers for the entire country?
A little over 3,000 counties and county equivalents in the territories. After each election there is a breakdown. I am not sure where it is archived. One key is that the election participation rate does not change very much across the country except for a few small outliers. Although in 2020 the deep blue city counties made themselves outliers by exceeding 100% of registered voters or very close to it.
Do you do the calculations yourself? What other factors do you use?
How are "core" and "legacy" voters defined? Which/how many counties were used as a sample size in order to make these calculations? How does it account for the fact that liberals and conservatives are not equally distributed through the country?
Does it take into effect the aging population and the fact that older people are historically much more conservative than younger people? Considering that we have the youngest part of the largest generation ever now at retirement age and older, and the highest mortality rates for conservative voters, that seems like it should be taken into consideration.
What about the changes that covid and work from home caused in the demographics? Many people moved out of cities (more likely blue) and into suburbs and the countryside (more likely purple or red) when the pandemic hit. A good deal of them are still there, hence all the complaints about people moving into red states, trying to turn them blue. All this has happened since the last election, so there won't be any voting records that would reflect this. This could potentially affect swing states if large numbers of democrats moved there during/after the pandemic. And judging by how many people are complaining about being overrun by liberals moving in, it's not beyond possibilities.
From what I understand, the counties exceeding 100% of registered voters were due to same day registration voters.