How can you possibly tell if complete strangers are "true believers" or not?

Your idea that it's "zero sum" is flawed. The number of registered voters isn't a constant, and neither is voter consistency. All voters don't vote in every election.

You're completely ignoring the fact that there was a huge surge in voter interest and participation between 2016 and 2020. You don't think that influenced people to get registered to vote? Especially considering that HRC was supposed to win and didn't? You don't think it shook a lot of people up?

The Supreme Court overturning Roe vs. Wade has influenced a hell of a lot more people to get registered and vote this time around. That's going to bring in an entirely new demographic.

It's bizarre that people constantly complain about the number of liberals that have TDS, the millions of babies they abort, all the colleges and universities that are full of liberals needing safe spaces and them being nothing more than indoctrination centers, our public education system full of liberals ruining their minds, all the people working in Healthcare trying to make people sick or kill them, all the protestors and rioters, all the shoplifters causing stores to close, all the increase in crime, all the blue haired freaks all over the place, all the homosexuals trying to shove their lifestyle down our throats, but yet whenever it comes to election day, people act like there are only a handful of liberals here and there around the country.

If it was true that only 15% of voters were "core believers", then the country wouldn't be as bad as it is.

Unless you're saying that the people constantly going on about how we're surrounded by liberals ruining our lives are grossly exaggerating about all of that?