This was the mood in informed Moscow – only a few hours before the renewed Istanbul kabuki on Russia-Ukraine “negotiations”. Three key points.
- The attack on Russian strategic bombers – part of the nuclear triad – was a US-UK joint operation. Especially MI6. The overall tech investment and strategy was provided by this intel combo.
- It’s patently unclear whether Trump is really in charge – or not. This was confirmed to me at night by a top intel source; he added that the Kremlin and the security services were actively investigating all possibilities, especially who issued the final green light.
- Near universal popular consensus: Release the Oreshniks. Plus waves of ballistic missiles. Predictably, the Instabul kabuki came and went like a tawdry spectacle, complete with the Ukrainian delegation in military fatigues and Defense Minister Umarov incapable of speaking even mediocre English at a messy press conference after the brief 1h15 meeting. The Turkish Foreign Ministry epically described the kabuki as concluding “not negatively”. Nothing strategic or politically substantial was discussed: only prisoner exchanges. The mood in Moscow, additionally, was that top Russian negotiator Medinsky should have presented an ultimatum, not a memorandum. It was, predictably, interpreted as an ultimatum by the Beggar of Banderastan; but what Medinsky actually handed out to the Ukrainians was a de facto road map memorandum, in 3 sections, with 2 options for the conditions for a ceasefire, and 31 points, a great deal of them expressed in detail by Moscow for months. Examples: first option for a ceasefire should be a complete UAF withdrawal from DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia, within 30 days; international recognition of Crimea, Donbass and Novorossiya as part of Russia; Ukraine neutrality; Ukraine holding elections and then signing a peace treaty – approved by a legally binding UN Security Council resolution (italics mine); and a ban on the receipt and deployment of nuclear weapons. None of that, of course, will ever be accepted by the terror-infused set up in Kiev, the neo-nazi outfits that control it, and assorted, fragmented collective West warmongering backers. So the SMO will go on. Possibly all the way to 2026. Along with extra versions of the Istanbul kabuki: the next one should be held by late June. The current kabuki, incidentally, composes the Last Chance Saloon for Kiev to retain some measure of – fractious – “sovereignty”. As Foreign Minister Lavrov has been reiterating, everything will be really decided in the battlefield. How to destroy the New START Treaty Now to the attack on a branch of Russia’s strategic triad – which mired Western propaganda media in layers and layers of stratospheric hysteria. The point has been made over and over again on why Russia left its strategic bombers unprotected in the tarmac. Because that’s a New START Treaty requirement – signed in 2010 and extended until February next year (when it may go six feet under, considering what just happened). The New START Treaty stipulates that strategic bombers should be visible to “national technical means (NTM) of verification, such as satellite imagery, to allow monitoring by the other party.” So their status – nuclear-armed or converted to conventional use – should be always verifiable. No chance of a “surprise” first strike. This operation single-handedly blew up what was, up to now, a decent Cold War relic preventing the start of WWIII via a simple mechanism. The recklesness involved is off the charts. So there’s no surprise that the highest echelons of power in Russia – from the Kremlin to the security apparatus – are feverishly working to ascertain whether Trump was in the loop or not. And if he was not, who gave the final green light? No wonder the highest echelon, so far, is mum. A security source told me that it was US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that called Lavrov – and not the other way around, to offer condolences for the bridge-on-train terror attack in Bryansk. No word whatsoever about the strategic bombers. In parallel, the former platoon commander in Iraq then Fox News talking head turned head of the Pentagon followed the drone attacks on the Russian bases in real-time. On the efficacy of such attacks – beyond the gleefully spun to death fog of war. Several conflicting estimates point to possibly three Tu-95MS strategic bombers – known as “The Bears” – hit at the Belaya base in Irkutsk, plus one of them partially damaged, and three other T-22M3s hit, with two of them irreparably. Of the three Tu-95MS, fires seem to have been localized, so they may be repaired. At the Olenya base in Murmansk, other four Tu-95MS may have been hit, plus one An-12. As it stands, Russia had 58 Tu-95MS up to this weekend. Even if five of them have been lost for good, that’s less than 10% of their fleet. And that does not count 19 Tu-160 and 55 Tu-22M3M. Of the five bases that were supposed to be attacked, success happened in only two. These losses, as painful as they may be, simply will not affect further strikes by Russian aero-spatial forces. Example: the standard weapon carried by a T-95MSM is the X-101 cruise missile. A maximum of 8 for each mission. In recent strikes, not more than 40 missiles have been launched simultaneously. That implies only 6 Tu-95s in action. So Russia in fact only needs 6 Tu-95MSM ready to fly to conduct strikes as intense as in the previous days and weeks. Tu-160s, moreover, are not even being used for the latest strikes. Evaluating Maximum Strategy At the time of writing, Russia’s inevitably devastating response has still not been green-lighted. This is as serious as it gets. Even if it’s true that POTUS was not informed – and that’s what the Kremlin and the security services want to be absolutely sure of before unleashing Hell from Above on Kiev – still the contours will be clear of a NATO op – US/UK – directly conducted by the CIA/MI6 intel combo, with Trump being offered plausible deniability and Ukraine breaking the START protocol big time. Were Trump to have authorized these strikes, this would constitute no less than a declaration of war by the United States on Russia. So the most probable scenario remains Trump blindsided by the neo-cons embedded in privileged silos scattered across the Beltway. As much as the attack on the Voronezh-M early warning radar system last May, an attack on Russia’s strategic bombers fits the scenario of increasingly prodding the Russian system to enable disabling it ahead of a nuclear first strike. Aspiring Dr. Strangeloves do entertain this scenario in their wildest dreams for decades. As sources carefully confirmed, the prevailing interpretation among the high echelons of power in Russia is that of a P.R. operation forcing a harsh – possibly nuclear – Russian response, coupled with Moscow’s withdrawal from the Istanbul kabuki. So far, the Russian reaction is quite methodical: total silence, a wide-ranging investigation, plus going through the motions in Istanbul. Yet there’s no question the – inevitable – response will require Maximum Strategy. If the response is in tune with Russia’s own updated nuclear doctrine, Moscow risks losing the Global South’s nearly unanimous support. If the response is lukewarm, domestic blowback will be massive. There’s a near universal consensus on “Release the Oreshniks”. Russian public opinion is becoming seriously fed up with being the target of serial terror attacks. The hour of fateful decision is getting late. Which bring us to the ultimate dilemma. Russian power is mulling how to defeat the collective warmongering West without launching WWIII. Inspired by China, a solution may be found via an alliance of remixed Sun Tzu coupled with Lao Tzu. There’s got to be a way – or layered ways – to destroy a strategy-deprived nihilistic enemy’s ability and will to wage endless war.
These trucks pulled up 500yds from the airbases 2500 klms inside Russia. It was probably all over before the Russians realised what had happened. The videos taken by civilians show they were in a town. One truck was on fire - the other intact + one terrorist strangled on the ground.
Thanks for the information, I’ve been so busy lately I haven’t been able to keep up. Knowing this reinforces my belief that forces inside of Russia are trying to undermine President Putin.
There is no way a badly depleted Ukrainian military has pulled off this surprise attack, attacking Putin’s helicopter, and bombing the bridge into Crimea without help from inside Russia. These events are giving me a Sum of All Fears vibe.
The satellites belong to the UK NATO and US have been feeding the locations to Ukraine. When the drones are examined, Russia will determine what country supplied them. Let me repost what Dmitry Medvedev statement he released earlier says
Calm Before Inevitable Storm: Calm Words, Scary Kinetic Consequences
When Dmitry Medvedev stops joking and starts speaking in bone-cold certainty, it’s time to read the runes and brace for fire. The usually bombastic former president, known for his dark humor and trolling of Western leaders, has gone stoic. And that’s far more terrifying.
In a terse statement following a week of Ukrainian terrorism and sabotage deep inside Russia: railway bombings, drone attacks on strategic military airfields from Murmansk to the Far East, Medvedev didn’t scream. He whispered. Russia, he said, will “inevitably” retaliate. No timelines. No specifics. Just inevitability.
And that calm, that eerie quiet, is the sound before the orshenik storm. It’s the calculated silence of a superpower tired of games, but still diplomatic enough to sit at the table in Istanbul with the same people orchestrating terror campaigns against its infrastructure and civilians. Only a civilization with depth, resolve, and historical memory does this. Moscow came to negotiate peace, while its adversaries sent drones.
Medvedev’s words weren’t fiery; they were surgical: “Everything that needs to be blown up will be, and those who need to be eliminated will be.” Not rhetoric. Not bravado. That is a mission briefing from the Security Council’s war room. He speaks now not as a former president, but as the voice of a state that has turned the page on Western appeasement, and is already writing the next chapter, with steel, not sentiment.
And still, Russia offered prisoner swaps, body exchanges, even temporary ceasefires to recover the dead from the battlefield. Moscow returned the remains of 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers, and said it would accept the return of its own. But what was Kiev’s answer? Zelensky, the failed comedian turned tragic puppet, called Russian negotiators “idiots.” The man who greenlit drone strikes on civilian railways, who greenlit targeting Murmansk and Ryazan, now mocks a ceasefire designed to retrieve the dead?
The Kremlin, ever tactful, called his words “unfortunate.” But the real message came not from Peskov, but from Medvedev and from the silence behind the eyes of Vladimir Putin. This is not 2022. Russia is no longer trying to be understood. It is preparing to be obeyed.
And let’s not pretend this is diplomacy in good faith. Kiev only crawled back to the table because Donald Trump applied pressure. Trump, sick of the game, made it clear: get serious or the U.S. walks. The fact that Zelensky still chooses escalation amid this ultimatum shows either madness or martyrdom and Russia, being patient, seems willing to let him choose.
But don’t mistake patience for passivity. The cauldron is heating. The front is moving. And when Medvedev tells the Russian people that retaliation is “inevitable,” it’s not bluster, it’s the long, deep breath before the world watches something snap.
Zelensky should be less concerned with hurling insults and more concerned with evacuating his command bunker. The bear is awake. The bear is calculating. And the bear is done talking.
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