👉🏻 https://x.com/teslaconomics/status/2011140388132958282

👉🏻 https://nitter.net/teslaconomics/status/2011140388132958282

I honestly believe SpaceX is going to be the BIGGEST IPO the stock market has ever seen and I don’t think the market and many people fully understands what’s coming yet.

People keep throwing around numbers like $1-1.5 trillion, which already sounds massive (Tesla’s market cap today is $1.5T). But from what I’ve researched over the years and being invested heavily in the company for many years, this number feels like the floor.

As of December 2025, SpaceX was valued at ~$800 billion in an insider private share sale. The company does this every now and then to allow internal employees that have been with the company for a long time to have some liquidity since the company is private fyi.

IPO plans are expected in 2026, w/ early chatter targeting $1-1.5 trillion, potentially raising $30B+, which would already make it the largest IPO in history, beating Saudi Aramco! But there is so much more that is happening underneath.

Check out Starlink for example. • Revenue was about ~$15B in 2025 • Expected to grow to $22-24B in 2026 • 9M subscribers today, and I think it will double in 2026 • By 2030, Starlink could realistically be doing $50B+ per year

This technology will be powering global connectivity, aviation, ships, rural areas, governments, militaries, schools, hospitals, AI backhaul, disaster zones… places fiber will never reach.

Put a conservative 10-20 multiple on that, Starlink ON ITS OWN could justify a $500B-$1T valuation.

Then, you add the fact that SpaceX is the ONLY company today that owns the road to space bc of cost effective reusable rockets… it changed everything. Today, SpaceX can launch payloads for ~$100 per kg to orbit, while everyone else is still at $5,000+ per kg!

There is literally no competition…

To dumb it down, it’s like SpaceX owning the railroads in the 1800s, with Amazon’s logistics network, and Apple’s ecosystem, and more. It’s absolutely clear… if you want to go to Space or do anything there, you have to go through SpaceX.

This gives them full control over:

• Satellites
• Space stations
• Data centers
• Lunar missions
• Mars missions • And whatever the future of Space is

This kind of advantage deserves a MASSIVE valuation premium.

Then, there are markets SpaceX hasn’t even unlocked yet and this is where valuations start to break people’s brains and spreadsheets.

1/ Point-to-point Earth travel like New York to Shanghai in under an hour. Even grabbing just 10% of long haul travel is a $ hundreds-of-billions market.

2/ Space based data centers with essentially unlimited solar power, natural cooling, no land constraints, no regulations… remember AI needs a lot of energy and Space has plenty of it.

3/ Getting to Mars and building brand new economies. Whoever controls transport controls the economy that follows. Just imagine building another Earth economy on MANY planets.

This is why $1.5T feels way too low to me.

At $22-24B in revenue, a tech growth multiple already gets you $1-2T. And then add the fact that SpaceX is compounding infrastructure across multiple $ trillion dollar markets… if revenue scales toward $100B+ in the next decade, which is VERY realistic btw, you’re no longer talking about a $1.5T company.

You’re talking $3T, $5T, $10T+, even $100T+ over time.

I see SpaceX as the gateway to the next economy for humanity. Earth is a ~$500T asset when you add up everything and SpaceX is about to expand and multiply that pie.

So when people say “Bro… $1.5T IPO?! You’re crazy…” I just nod, smile, and think to myself that this is where the story is just beginning.