This is just a IMO theory of mine that started as a comment on a post earlier today that subsequently was deleted because it was a duplicate post. I thought the information to be pertinet and the data points worthy of their own post and discussion.... well, I've failed to notice anyone talking about it as of yet. Feel free to chirp, croak, and freely discuss the notion espoused (see title). 🐸
The Iranian conflict (and Ukraine as well) is one big chain reaction set up to merge LNG into the petro dollar and completely dominate the global markets. The following are very easily provable data points leading up to the present day:
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Pre-Ukraine, RUS supplies majority of EURO LNG.
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Nordstream is terror attacked. Now US is primary seller of LNG to EUR.
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Use UKR proxy to attack RUS tankers in the Mediterranean.
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Knock out Venezuela eliminating majority of foreign bought LNG from Western hemisphere.
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Qatari & Saudi production and distribution halted, eliminating 30%+ of China's LNG import sources.
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POTUS signed EO stating by 2029 at least 1% of all GCC LNG must be carried by US made vessels. Forcing everyone to buy US made ships.
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USN now available on rent for security escorts for anyone wanting to pay the vig.
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Next, take control of Greenland which will further hinder RUS Arctic ships.
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Norway is not currently a factor as it is already at max capacity and dealing mostly locally within Scandinavia.
This is why LNG and crude oil is not down, but up in the stock markets. They (ExxonMobil, et al) know exactly what's coming and that's complete US domination of the energy markets. Everyone except for RUS will be forced to either buy US energy, buy US vessels for transport of fuel, and/or pay the USN to insure their cargo. It's a triple threat win and either really damn smart or dastardly extortion depending on how you look at it. This coming winter would be an excellent time to buy into the Euro because I would bet my boots that it will crash to counter buying & investing in USD to purchase their enormous energy requirements.
Just my brain craving crayons while working today. Maybe it's all just dumb luck and coincidence, but I'd guess that's probably not the case. Look for more energy cause/effect habbenings to coalesce in the near future with the data points provided.
Excellent points fren. Agreed, just look how Druzhba has been shut off and currently being used as blackmail against Orban & Fico. It would be wise to keep an eye on Turkstream as well.
I actually have crayon-brained theory regarding Russia. I suspect they have an alternative plan in their pocket if things go completely tits up and they cannot work with the West. I think they've probably already reached out to both Turkey & Israel and would scheme to have them fight each other while they push for access to more ports militarily i.e. Black Sea & Caspian Sea prospects.
Lord knows that wouldn't be a hard fight to stir up, and additional ports would benefit them immensely of course.
My pet theory. I’d imagine the U.S is going to cooperate with the Russians to take out Erdogan. Nothing officially of course. Maybe they’ll even disguise it behind seeming impass and diplomatic stonewalling. But there will likely be cooperation.
While I see your point. I’d imagine the Russians aren’t liable to stir up conflict between Turkey and Israel beyond what’s already somewhat natural to them existing in relative proximity. Given Israel possesses the Nuclear Warheads they refuse to admit they have. Not to mention the presence of U.S installations with Nuclear capabilities in Turkey. It’s all fun and games until people start tossing Suns at each other. And the radiation and fallout would undoubtedly be undesirable.
I’d imagine the likelihood is the U.S will cooperate on the downlow even if we make a public show of not doing so. Just to replace Erdogan with someone who’s less of a Brotherhood wildcard in there. Maybe followed by hamstringing Turkeys ability to act independently of the U.S and NATO oversight. Given how many issues they’ve caused in the region while working with the Qataris.
The Russians get a wildcard with NATO backing off their border. And instead get one whose actions will likely be more predictable and less willing to frustrate Russian operations of their own volition. They’ll likely also push to get the Bosporus reopened to Russian Naval Traffic and strip Turkeys ability to unilaterally close it. Though I don’t think the U.S or Turks will give on that front. Though they may make concessions elsewhere.
This will likely be followed by a U.S Pivot towards the Greeks. As key reliable regional players and the lynchpin of U.S regional operations. Probably also with a staged face saving negotiation for Turkeys withdrawal from Cyprus and an end to that occupation.
The maps will likely need to be redrawn in the area probably by the end of the year. Potentially next year at the latest. As I imagine some territory is also going to change hands. Though I can’t say with any certainty beyond probably a Turkish exit from Cyprus. Given that’s a major sticking point for the Greeks.