It is a great analysis. And overall it makes a lot of sense.
But I think he's reading Russia and Ukraine incorrectly. From what Trump has said, the parties resisting a Ukr-Rus peace deal have been Europe and Ukraine, not Russia. So the energy crisis will force Ukraine and Western Europe into peace with Russia not the other way around. Sure it could help persuade Russia, but they are getting the carrot not the stick.
Further, Russia is an oil and LNG exporter, and likely to remain so. They will be rewarded for their self sufficiency and will profit from exports more than ever because of the energy crisis affecting Europe and China, who will both compete for Russian energy.
Ukraine's hits on Russian oil infrastructure are pinpricks. Russia has realigned its trade to China and India with new pipelines. The idea that the US with "control" Russia oil because of a handful of irritating, overhyped drone strikes on unguarded pipelines is ludicrous.
But as you said, overall, the play makes sense. Trump's realigning the dollar with real value. It's still a fiat currency, but the petrodollar system helps keep it stable. He can't force Congress to quit spending stupidly, but he can shore up the system for a little longer.
It is a great analysis. And overall it makes a lot of sense.
But I think he's reading Russia and Ukraine incorrectly. From what Trump has said, the parties resisting a Ukr-Rus peace deal have been Europe and Ukraine, not Russia. So the energy crisis will force Ukraine and Western Europe into peace with Russia not the other way around. Sure it could help persuade Russia, but they are getting the carrot not the stick.
Further, Russia is an oil and LNG exporter, and likely to remain so. They will be rewarded for their self sufficiency and will profit from exports more than ever because of the energy crisis affecting Europe and China, who will both compete for Russian energy.
Please tell me if I overlooked something on this.
Ukraine's hits on Russian oil infrastructure are pinpricks. Russia has realigned its trade to China and India with new pipelines. The idea that the US with "control" Russia oil because of a handful of irritating, overhyped drone strikes on unguarded pipelines is ludicrous.
But as you said, overall, the play makes sense. Trump's realigning the dollar with real value. It's still a fiat currency, but the petrodollar system helps keep it stable. He can't force Congress to quit spending stupidly, but he can shore up the system for a little longer.