👉🏻 https://x.com/michaelarothman/status/2039494266263867828
👉🏻 https://nitter.net/michaelarothman/status/2039494266263867828
(Copypasta follows)
𝐕𝐈𝐂𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐃𝐀𝐕𝐈𝐒 𝐇𝐀𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐍 𝐄𝐗𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐓𝐖𝐎 𝐖𝐀𝐑𝐒 𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐌𝐏 𝐈𝐒 𝐅𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐈𝐍 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 — 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐖𝐇𝐘 𝐇𝐄'𝐒 𝐖𝐈𝐍𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐁𝐎𝐓𝐇
VDH just laid out the most complete framework for understanding what Trump is doing in Iran — and why the "forever war" critics are wrong.
There are two wars: military and political. The military one is dominant. Trump 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 — knock out the water, sewage, power grid, communications, paralyze the country. But he's choosing not to, for strategic reasons.
Hanson's list of political constraints is the part nobody else is mapping:
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐀𝐆𝐀 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 — not in numbers (85-90% of Republicans support him), but the vocal minority with large audiences who call it a "forever war." Hanson's response: "𝘐 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘣𝘰𝘥𝘺 𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘴𝘢𝘺 30 𝘥𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘪𝘳 𝘤𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘯 𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘳."
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 — oil surged from $𝟓𝟎-𝟔𝟎 𝐚 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏𝟎𝟎-𝟏𝟐𝟎. Gas was $2.50 in some states, $1.80 in Iowa before the war. War creates tension in stock and bond markets.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐬 — if Trump loses his legislative majority, Hanson says flatly: "𝘠𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘸𝘰 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘩𝘪𝘮. 𝘠𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵."
𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥 — 75% of U.S. and Israeli aims overlap, but Israel is "𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘹𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘷𝘶𝘭𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦" in a way America isn't. For Israel, disarming Iran without regime change is "𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢 𝘣𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘪𝘮 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘭. 𝘏𝘦'𝘴 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘳𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴."
And the broader Middle East fatigue — Americans remember the first Gulf War, the trillion-dollar Iraq invasion, the 20-year Afghanistan disaster, the $70 billion in abandoned military assets. "𝘈𝘯𝘺𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘨𝘰 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘪𝘥𝘥𝘭𝘦 𝘌𝘢𝘴𝘵, 𝘈𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯𝘴 𝘴𝘢𝘺, 𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘮𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘪𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘥."
Hanson's key insight: Trump's approach is 𝐉𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧. Don't nation-build. Don't meddle. But if you provoke us, the response will be "𝘢𝘴𝘺𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭, 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘦, 𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘭𝘺." That's the doctrine. Soleimani. Baghdadi. ISIS. The Wagner Group. Maduro. All one-offs. No quagmires.
𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐢𝐬𝐧'𝐭 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫. 𝐇𝐞'𝐬 𝐧𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐢𝐯𝐞. 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝟑𝟎 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐢𝐧, 𝐡𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦.
Trump will come out of the conflict as a hero. The US will have another cash cow. The Middle East will be peaceful. The gulf countries will be very grateful that the sword they had hanging over their necks has been removed.
The price of oil will drop like a rock and gasoline prices with it. California will still be screwed up.
This will cause the democrats to cry and scream illegal, terrible war. All the way to the midterms.
AND THE DUMBO DEMS will EXACTLY do what you have typed due to the fact...THAT IS ALL THEY KNOW!!!!!
The midterms from this point on will be on the heads of the dems/repubs and it is going to be wonderful to watch the malcontents on both sides of the aisle get their comeuppance...
ALSO, I do think that the Supreme Court and other courts are going to be under the gun. The reason: It's alright to clean up the country of the Muzzies BUT IT WILL DO NOT GOOD IF THE FEDERAL COURT SYSTEM IS NOT ALSO CLEANED UP AND CLEANED OUT!!!!!!
This is NOT what OUR founding fathers wanted when they created the Federal Court System: via research into the Federal Court System:
"Founding Fathers like Alexander Hamilton argued in Federalist No. 78 that the judiciary must interpret the law and declare acts contrary to the Constitution void."
"Judiciary must interpret the law and declare acts contrary to the Constitution void" this is what is missing in the Federal Court System. Because these courts are JUST "barely" following the system that was put into place by this country's Forefathers. Another case in point: The SC & CJ Roberts who thinks that the courts must weigh in... that is over-reach into the EXECUTIVE BRANCH AND the SC knows it!!!!!
The federal court system was supposed to be the weakest of the three branches.