👉🏻 https://x.com/michaelarothman/status/2039494266263867828
👉🏻 https://nitter.net/michaelarothman/status/2039494266263867828
(Copypasta follows)
𝐕𝐈𝐂𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐃𝐀𝐕𝐈𝐒 𝐇𝐀𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐍 𝐄𝐗𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐓𝐖𝐎 𝐖𝐀𝐑𝐒 𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐌𝐏 𝐈𝐒 𝐅𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐈𝐍 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 — 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐖𝐇𝐘 𝐇𝐄'𝐒 𝐖𝐈𝐍𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐁𝐎𝐓𝐇
VDH just laid out the most complete framework for understanding what Trump is doing in Iran — and why the "forever war" critics are wrong.
There are two wars: military and political. The military one is dominant. Trump 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 — knock out the water, sewage, power grid, communications, paralyze the country. But he's choosing not to, for strategic reasons.
Hanson's list of political constraints is the part nobody else is mapping:
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐀𝐆𝐀 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 — not in numbers (85-90% of Republicans support him), but the vocal minority with large audiences who call it a "forever war." Hanson's response: "𝘐 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘣𝘰𝘥𝘺 𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘴𝘢𝘺 30 𝘥𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘪𝘳 𝘤𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘯 𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘳."
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 — oil surged from $𝟓𝟎-𝟔𝟎 𝐚 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏𝟎𝟎-𝟏𝟐𝟎. Gas was $2.50 in some states, $1.80 in Iowa before the war. War creates tension in stock and bond markets.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐬 — if Trump loses his legislative majority, Hanson says flatly: "𝘠𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘸𝘰 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘩𝘪𝘮. 𝘠𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵."
𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥 — 75% of U.S. and Israeli aims overlap, but Israel is "𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘹𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘷𝘶𝘭𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦" in a way America isn't. For Israel, disarming Iran without regime change is "𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢 𝘣𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘪𝘮 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘭. 𝘏𝘦'𝘴 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘳𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴."
And the broader Middle East fatigue — Americans remember the first Gulf War, the trillion-dollar Iraq invasion, the 20-year Afghanistan disaster, the $70 billion in abandoned military assets. "𝘈𝘯𝘺𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘨𝘰 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘪𝘥𝘥𝘭𝘦 𝘌𝘢𝘴𝘵, 𝘈𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯𝘴 𝘴𝘢𝘺, 𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘮𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘪𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘥."
Hanson's key insight: Trump's approach is 𝐉𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧. Don't nation-build. Don't meddle. But if you provoke us, the response will be "𝘢𝘴𝘺𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭, 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘦, 𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘭𝘺." That's the doctrine. Soleimani. Baghdadi. ISIS. The Wagner Group. Maduro. All one-offs. No quagmires.
𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐢𝐬𝐧'𝐭 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫. 𝐇𝐞'𝐬 𝐧𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐢𝐯𝐞. 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝟑𝟎 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐢𝐧, 𝐡𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦.
TIL MAGA voices are calling this a "forever" "war" when it is actually neither.
A "war" is a conflict. It's a fight.
When a bully who's been stealing kids' lunch money and bloodying their noses finally gets picked up in a bear hug by one of his intended victims, body-slammed to the asphalt, slugged in the head till he's dizzy, and punched in the gut till he pukes and cries like a baby,...that isn't a "fight". That's a bully getting his ass kicked in a one-sided display of long overdue justice. And it doesn't take "forever".
When the bully's hands are "amputated" he's "incapacitated" to steal. President Trump will incapacitate Iran, destroying their source of enriched uranium, buried under 'Pickaxe Mountain', with" specialize"ground troops who will do the "amputating" the capability of developing nuclear weapons.