All former agreements with the Iranian regime at this point are all but null and void. The mullahs are no longer in control. The IRGC effectively took control with the death of the Ayatollah and new deals will have to be ironed out. Mojtaba Khamenei is basically a figure head to keep the Islamic minority supporters onboard - if he is even alive at this point. If the regime loses what little public support they have, they will be finished. That is why the State media pumps out all the outrageous propaganda. They have to keep those supporters believing the BS for their own survival. So, when Trump says there has been a regime change, that is true. The IRGC have taken complete control and are now calling the shots, not the mullahs.
Command and Control in Iran is fractured and there are many lone regional actors out there. The problem now is who is actually in control and can be negotiated with that can effect change like opening up the Strait. If Trump is negotiating with the "more reasonable" reformists through Pakistan, they have no power to do anything in Iran - they never did. The radical apocalyptic IRGC hardliners prefer to burn it all to the ground rather than surrender. They are all turning on each other suspecting traitors and have threatened to execute anyone caught talking to the Americans. They will eat themselves alive given enough time while they are all jockeying for power.
Then there are all the Shia Iraqi and Afghani mercenaries the IRGC shipped into Iran to control the population because their own security forces have essentially deserted their posts. These rogue forces will be another wild card that could also turn against the regime - especially if they don't get paid. Now we are hearing that some of the weapons sent by the US to arm the Iranian citizens have been hijacked by the Iraqi separatist Kurds. The situation in Iran is definitely a hot mess.
Frankly, I would consider them all hardliners and so do most of the Iranian people. They don't want a deal with any of them. They are all viscous and brutal. The fact that some are called reformers is a joke. In many ways they are worse than the hardliners - they are just more sneaky about it. But make no mistake. They are all cut from the same bolt of cloth.
All former agreements with the Iranian regime at this point are all but null and void. The mullahs are no longer in control. The IRGC effectively took control with the death of the Ayatollah and new deals will have to be ironed out. Mojtaba Khamenei is basically a figure head to keep the Islamic minority supporters onboard - if he is even alive at this point. If the regime loses what little public support they have, they will be finished. That is why the State media pumps out all the outrageous propaganda. They have to keep those supporters believing the BS for their own survival. So, when Trump says there has been a regime change, that is true. The IRGC have taken complete control and are now calling the shots, not the mullahs.
Command and Control in Iran is fractured and there are many lone regional actors out there. The problem now is who is actually in control and can be negotiated with that can effect change like opening up the Strait. If Trump is negotiating with the "more reasonable" reformists through Pakistan, they have no power to do anything in Iran - they never did. The radical apocalyptic IRGC hardliners prefer to burn it all to the ground rather than surrender. They are all turning on each other suspecting traitors and have threatened to execute anyone caught talking to the Americans. They will eat themselves alive given enough time while they are all jockeying for power.
Then there are all the Shia Iraqi and Afghani mercenaries the IRGC shipped into Iran to control the population because their own security forces have essentially deserted their posts. These rogue forces will be another wild card that could also turn against the regime - especially if they don't get paid. Now we are hearing that some of the weapons sent by the US to arm the Iranian citizens have been hijacked by the Iraqi separatist Kurds. The situation in Iran is definitely a hot mess.
Great analysis. The current IRGC leaders are more hardline than the political leaders we just killed.
Thank you.
Frankly, I would consider them all hardliners and so do most of the Iranian people. They don't want a deal with any of them. They are all viscous and brutal. The fact that some are called reformers is a joke. In many ways they are worse than the hardliners - they are just more sneaky about it. But make no mistake. They are all cut from the same bolt of cloth.