Honestly seems more likely Iran is trying to use information warfare to craft the narrative that there are mines and that they don't know how many or where because of "rogue forces deploying them improperly" so there's nothing that they can so therefore no ships should bother sailing. They're banking on nobody calling the bluff
That's the problem. No one knows for sure. Shipping is extremely risk averse. Who is going to test to see if its a bluff when you are dealing with millions of dollars in ships and cargo. It's not the first time Iran has mined the Strait. So, they do have a track record of being that crazy. There are also rogue actors. Command and Control has been fractured and the IRGC command, what's left of them, don't have control over all the forces in the country.
And then... INFORMATION WARFARE appears!
https://x.com/i/status/2042786809025908904
That's the problem. No one knows for sure. Shipping is extremely risk averse. Who is going to test to see if its a bluff when you are dealing with millions of dollars in ships and cargo. It's not the first time Iran has mined the Strait. So, they do have a track record of being that crazy. There are also rogue actors. Command and Control has been fractured and the IRGC command, what's left of them, don't have control over all the forces in the country.
Averse.
My bad. Thanks.