From a legal standpoint, the legitimate government of Iran (using the term loosely) has been overthrown by pirates---who are willing to command, but not to govern. What does that mean? It means they do not care about relationships with other nations, only with power inside their own nation. And making imperious demands against their neighbors. They have de facto closed the door on negotiation, because---with them---there is no negotiation. The bomb-loving homicidal maniacs are fully in charge.
In retrospect, this was probably the only possible outcome. What led to this point was water floating on oil, inherently unstable. But it certainly clarifies to the world that Trump did everything humanly possible to attain a diplomatic closure to the situation. Now, force majeure is the only path remaining.
The force to reclaim the nation should come from the remnants of the legitimate government, and its Army, and its people! The IRGC is illegitimate, it is mostly leaderless, functioning independently of any coordinated nation state. We need to take more of them out, and the people have been telling us where they are.
We have been most prudent and most patient, but I have always thought the resistance has been in the back-channel.
It reminds me of the fall of Germany in World War II: the Fuhrer is dead and anyone else either doesn't really have the authority, doesn't know what to do with it, or is fleeing for their life. When a government collapses, there really isn't a government at all. An occupation force needs to set up a regime to provide order while the citizens compose a new government (or one is set up for them, with a constitutional convention and elections as the first order of business). Something like what happened with Japan.
When the Ottoman Empire had been defeated in World War I, T.E. Lawrence helped to lead the Arab tribes to Damascus to convene and form government in the middle east. Their lack of vision, tribal rivalries, and failure to agree made the conclave a futile disaster, and my impression is that it left Lawrence with a profound sense of failure.
From a legal standpoint, the legitimate government of Iran (using the term loosely) has been overthrown by pirates---who are willing to command, but not to govern. What does that mean? It means they do not care about relationships with other nations, only with power inside their own nation. And making imperious demands against their neighbors. They have de facto closed the door on negotiation, because---with them---there is no negotiation. The bomb-loving homicidal maniacs are fully in charge.
In retrospect, this was probably the only possible outcome. What led to this point was water floating on oil, inherently unstable. But it certainly clarifies to the world that Trump did everything humanly possible to attain a diplomatic closure to the situation. Now, force majeure is the only path remaining.
The force to reclaim the nation should come from the remnants of the legitimate government, and its Army, and its people! The IRGC is illegitimate, it is mostly leaderless, functioning independently of any coordinated nation state. We need to take more of them out, and the people have been telling us where they are.
We have been most prudent and most patient, but I have always thought the resistance has been in the back-channel.
It reminds me of the fall of Germany in World War II: the Fuhrer is dead and anyone else either doesn't really have the authority, doesn't know what to do with it, or is fleeing for their life. When a government collapses, there really isn't a government at all. An occupation force needs to set up a regime to provide order while the citizens compose a new government (or one is set up for them, with a constitutional convention and elections as the first order of business). Something like what happened with Japan.
When the Ottoman Empire had been defeated in World War I, T.E. Lawrence helped to lead the Arab tribes to Damascus to convene and form government in the middle east. Their lack of vision, tribal rivalries, and failure to agree made the conclave a futile disaster, and my impression is that it left Lawrence with a profound sense of failure.