Iranian civilian gov't was split and devolved out from under the IRGC and Ayatollah to the 31 provinces in August of 2025. There were some articles on this from Aug-Sep of 2025 that have all now been removed from the internet. President may be resigning to avoid being target or to GET OUT of Tehran area, temporarily. There are likely some nasty things underway by the remaining IRGC factions that he does not want to get blamed for. There is some evidence that the Ayatollah died in 2024 and his position was vacant until at least September of 2025.
Regular Iranian army is likely at war with or has subdued the provincial IRGC units in most of the provinces except for the Tehran area. IRGC centralized authority is gone (decapitation strikes), and IRGC and Ayatollah proxies likely now only control Tehran area.
Regular Iranian army is likely at war with or has subdued the provincial IRGC units in most of the provinces except for the Tehran area.
Unlikely. For years, the Artesh (regular Iranian army) has had limited access to their weapons, which are only given to them at times when the IRGC feels they can be trusted with them. At all other times, they're kept in secure bunkers where the Artesh can't get them. It's a system deliberately devised to make sure that the Artesh can never stand up to the IRGC.
Iranian civilian gov't was split and devolved out from under the IRGC and Ayatollah to the 31 provinces in August of 2025. There were some articles on this from Aug-Sep of 2025 that have all now been removed from the internet. President may be resigning to avoid being target or to GET OUT of Tehran area, temporarily. There are likely some nasty things underway by the remaining IRGC factions that he does not want to get blamed for. There is some evidence that the Ayatollah died in 2024 and his position was vacant until at least September of 2025.
Regular Iranian army is likely at war with or has subdued the provincial IRGC units in most of the provinces except for the Tehran area. IRGC centralized authority is gone (decapitation strikes), and IRGC and Ayatollah proxies likely now only control Tehran area.
Unlikely. For years, the Artesh (regular Iranian army) has had limited access to their weapons, which are only given to them at times when the IRGC feels they can be trusted with them. At all other times, they're kept in secure bunkers where the Artesh can't get them. It's a system deliberately devised to make sure that the Artesh can never stand up to the IRGC.
Excellent assessment TY