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129
Tom Luongo: Trump isn't fighting Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz; he's using the Strait to break Europe's ability to finance the Ukraine war. (twitter.com)
posted 3 days ago by bubble_bursts 3 days ago by bubble_bursts +129 / -0
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– mac1221 2 points 3 days ago +2 / -0

Tightening the economic noose. The Islamic regime was unable to sell their oil on the open market. They are desperate for cash. The only one willing to take it was China. No doubt at a substantially discounted price like before. No one else was willing to touch it - even India. Very strategic targets.

The railway however, China may have it rebuilt in a short amount of time. It was a huge Chinese BRI project. The Chinese also helped to rebuild the new B1 Bridge near Karaj, west of Tehran, that had been hit back during Epic Fury. It had not even been officially opened to the public but the regime had been using it to transport drone parts and other weaponry. It only took a few weeks for the Chinese to rebuild it. Several important bridges were taken out by the US and Israel back in April.

The US is basically allowing the Islamic regime to rebuild some of their capacity during the ceasefires and then hitting some of those same targets again with a few more added - like the railway corridor. The regime tries to stand up and Trump slaps them back down - each time forcing them down their hole a little deeper.

There is a good chance that the IRGC in the southern part of Iran on the coast are a rogue command and control node that Teheran cannot completely control. The IRGC deliberately decentralized their military so that if leadership is knocked out, like it was, the nodes could operate somewhat autonomously. The risk for rogue actors is high - especially when this element near the Strait sees an opportunity to build their own little thiefdom by charging tolls and locking down the Strait.

The regime tries to cover up the loss of control in their news and social media releases to give the appearance of regime unity. But the situation is far from it. Leadership says one thing, and then someone in the country does something else. The divisions within the regime are becoming more obvious by the day. Lately Trump's statements also reflect the chaotic situation on the ground.

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– TaQo 2 points 3 days ago +2 / -0

India dumped a ton of cash into Chabahar Port...

Word on the street is they're somewhat operational right now... even after strikes.

Hit em again, Sam!

u/#Draw

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– mac1221 2 points 3 days ago +2 / -0

Yes India did. The regime always manages to restore some capability to targeted installations, but how efficient that capacity is we can only wait to see. If the message is not taken seriously, then hitting it again would be in order. Any rational nation has a point where they give up in order to survive. But the Islamic regime is not rational. So there we have it.

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