Poll: Unvaccinated Americans least concerned about Delta variant
(www.politico.com)
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I keep seeing this "mutations are less lethal". Where does this belief come from? Mutations are errors during sequence copying by the host cell. How do these errors occur? Why would it necessarily be "less lethal"? This virus hardly kills anyone to start with, so increasing lethality wouldn't inhibit the virus' "goal" of increasing its biomass, if you consider that the virus' goal.
I think it depends on what you read and how specific they make a statement. Generally speaking, if a virus is lethal it kills off its hosts and cannot transmit easily. It’s not a living thing. It’s genetic code that creates an immune response in the body. Let’s think about Covid I’m general. In the beginning China was “supposedly” stacking bodies. The earliest epicenters in the US had higher death rates in the most at risk people. Overtime that death rate relative to the number of cases has come down. The question is did an early mutation cause the virus deaths to spike or did a higher incidence of infection make it appear so? It’s sort of like the vaccines. Small sample sized trials “supposedly” looked ok. Now when used in higher numbers, problems look more common (I do think something is not right with them).
Be careful if you try to search for this. There’s a lot of “fact checkers” stating viruses do get worse and more deadly. But back in March 2020 CNN was saying viral mutations are normal and not a cause for concern. Here’s a good article with a level headed explanation: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/more-than-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-viral-mutation/ I like the way it is presented. In general extremes resort to something more moderate in viral cycles. This is true. I suspect we are seeing this with the Delta variant.
Here an example of how this crap is being spun: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jul/07/instagram-posts/data-showing-lower-death-rate-coronavirus-delta-va/
Politifact is ranking the statement that a study shows the delta variant is 19 times less deadly. Their rationale isn’t the math, it’s that the sample size is too small. Yet, if we are too believe that mutations are more deadly, wouldn’t we see more deaths early on as the new strain becomes more prevalent.
Here is the actual report referenced in the article: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001354/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf
Actual Numbers: Alpha (Original): ~225k Cases w/ 1.9% death rate Delta: -92k cases w/ 0.1# death rate
Now the 92k number is actually not that small. In my simple mind, if the death rate was going to be higher, you’d see a trend emerge in a number that large. And it’s not like the Alpha case pool was 10 times larger either.
So… despite the fear mongering might we be seeing a less dangerous version of the virus taking hold? I suspect so. I also suspect that, as in Israel, you are going to see more problems with the vaccinated. I’m not sure why yet, except that Dr. Malone and Brett Weinstien’s theory that the mRNA vaccine spike protein is cytotoxic and causing problems might hold water.
I’m convinced Ivermectin is the key to making this go away. Yet it is being suppressed in favor of the vaccines, which do not look good in Israel at the moment (at least for the Delta). I also look at calls for more masks and lockdowns and suspect that they are rewriting history: convince the world that viruses DO get more deadly with time and force us to mask and hide in our homes again.
Think logically about this - if viruses got more lethal with time why is this the first pandemic in our lifetime? Shouldn’t it be the 100th? If we look at what we see and now what we are being told, deep down we all know something isn’t right.
A virus doesn't have a goal. Its is simply a "program" floating around until it enters a living cell and "hijacks" the cells' systems by incorporating its RNA/DNA into the host. Lethality decreases (the more lethal a virus, the more likely it kills its hosts and ends transmission to other hosts. The less lethal variants "survive" because they are weaker and DO NOT kill the host. Contagiousness and lethality are VERY different.