Actually, Japan is already there—They have amphibious marine teams stationed on the island, several discreet military bases … as well as missile bases very close to Taiwan.
Japan is quiet about it, but they’re more committed to Taiwan than many of us even realize.
Wish I had time tonight to search out some sauce, sorry fren ... I read about it in QuodVerum about 12-16 months ago now. It was several threads/discussions over the course of a week, between Thomas Wictor and a few other Japan-watchers.
The parts I remember:
The Japanese govt releases an annual "state of the union" 100+ page policy doc type PDF that gets disseminated among political/economic players and foreign policy nerds ... the most recent one (2019 or 2020) declared that the safety, stability and autonomy of Taiwan is vital to Japan's own security & stability, and that Japan's long-term diplomatic, economic, and military plans are made with that premise in mind.
Japan has missile bases set up all along their remote southern islands, from Mageshima down to the ones closest to Taiwan. I don't know any more details about the bases or types of missiles, other than they were specifically established to defend their southern islands (and Taiwan) from attack... or at the very least act as an intimidating deterrent.
Japan has one of the world’s largest fleets of F-35s.
Japan also has the ARDB – the “Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade”... these are Special Forces Marines established specifically to protect their outer islands ... and Japan has a good number of these Marines stationed in Taiwan.
It's an open secret that Japan is kinda sorta already a nuclear power ... that is, they have all the materials and resources at the ready, they're just kept discreetly in different locations ... and they would be able to very quickly become nuclear-capable "when the time comes".
Ach! I thought for a moment that Thomas Wictor had re-emerged...but then you mention 12-16 months ago. (slump)
Good memory for detail! Point 1 is very interesting, and potentially more important that U.S. involvement. Okay on point 2, but I would suspect these might be anti-shipping missiles. Point 3 may be a mixed blessing, considering the headaches that come with F-35s (got your final software, yet?). Point 4 is very interesting, indeed. Point 5 is an easy opinion to popularize but, having had a nuclear clearance, I doubt there are any "open secrets." The only bomb they could make with no confirmatory testing would be a uranium-gun bomb, for which they would need to have a supply of highly-enriched uranium. This is very hard to come by. We had to build the Oak Ridge facility specifically for uranium enrichment to bomb-grade, ~90% U-235. This kind of facility cannot be easily hidden (or the centrifuge approach, similar story). So, color me skeptical. Such a project would also be in violation of the Japanese constitution, so I have doubts that it could ever have been politically tenable up to the present.
Actually, Japan is already there—They have amphibious marine teams stationed on the island, several discreet military bases … as well as missile bases very close to Taiwan.
Japan is quiet about it, but they’re more committed to Taiwan than many of us even realize.
Yes, I believe "committed to Taiwan" is code for "we are taking back our fucking island from you goddamn communists!"
BASED!!! 🐸 🇯🇵
"Missile bases very close to Taiwan"
Really? Where? Japan? Okinawa? What kind of missiles?
Wish I had time tonight to search out some sauce, sorry fren ... I read about it in QuodVerum about 12-16 months ago now. It was several threads/discussions over the course of a week, between Thomas Wictor and a few other Japan-watchers.
The parts I remember:
The Japanese govt releases an annual "state of the union" 100+ page policy doc type PDF that gets disseminated among political/economic players and foreign policy nerds ... the most recent one (2019 or 2020) declared that the safety, stability and autonomy of Taiwan is vital to Japan's own security & stability, and that Japan's long-term diplomatic, economic, and military plans are made with that premise in mind.
Japan has missile bases set up all along their remote southern islands, from Mageshima down to the ones closest to Taiwan. I don't know any more details about the bases or types of missiles, other than they were specifically established to defend their southern islands (and Taiwan) from attack... or at the very least act as an intimidating deterrent.
Japan has one of the world’s largest fleets of F-35s.
Japan also has the ARDB – the “Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade”... these are Special Forces Marines established specifically to protect their outer islands ... and Japan has a good number of these Marines stationed in Taiwan.
It's an open secret that Japan is kinda sorta already a nuclear power ... that is, they have all the materials and resources at the ready, they're just kept discreetly in different locations ... and they would be able to very quickly become nuclear-capable "when the time comes".
Ach! I thought for a moment that Thomas Wictor had re-emerged...but then you mention 12-16 months ago. (slump)
Good memory for detail! Point 1 is very interesting, and potentially more important that U.S. involvement. Okay on point 2, but I would suspect these might be anti-shipping missiles. Point 3 may be a mixed blessing, considering the headaches that come with F-35s (got your final software, yet?). Point 4 is very interesting, indeed. Point 5 is an easy opinion to popularize but, having had a nuclear clearance, I doubt there are any "open secrets." The only bomb they could make with no confirmatory testing would be a uranium-gun bomb, for which they would need to have a supply of highly-enriched uranium. This is very hard to come by. We had to build the Oak Ridge facility specifically for uranium enrichment to bomb-grade, ~90% U-235. This kind of facility cannot be easily hidden (or the centrifuge approach, similar story). So, color me skeptical. Such a project would also be in violation of the Japanese constitution, so I have doubts that it could ever have been politically tenable up to the present.