The Hill...

Here is what to know about the process for electing a House Speaker, the math to win the election on the floor, what happens if there is no winner and much, much more. House Republicans’ slim majority heading into the 118th Congress is putting McCarthy in a bind.

The House has 222 incoming Republicans, 212 incoming Democrats and one vacancy left by the death of Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.) shortly after his reelection. The special election to fill the vacancy for the solidly Democratic seat is on Feb. 21. A majority of the whole House is 218 votes, and five or more Republican defections would put McCarthy below that threshold.

McCarthy is in trouble because five House Republicans — Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.) and Ralph Norman (S.C.) — have explicitly said or strongly indicated they will not support McCarthy.

Several other House Republicans pushing for rules changes that would empower rank-and-file members have withheld support for McCarthy without explicitly saying they will vote against him. Those members include Reps. Scott Perry (Pa.), Chip Roy (Texas) and Lauren Boebert (Colo.).

When the House GOP conference nominated McCarthy to be Speaker in November, 36 members did not vote for him. Biggs has said he thinks there are around 20 “hard noes” on McCarthy.

All Democrats are expected to vote for incoming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) for Speaker — at least on the first ballot.

It is possible to elect a Speaker with fewer than 218 votes. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) were elected with 216 votes in 2021 and 2015, respectively.

Current House practice dictates that the Speaker must be elected by a majority of those voting for a specific Speaker candidate by surname. Vacancies, absences and “present” votes lower that threshold.

Unexpected absences due to illness, weather or other circumstances, then, could affect McCarthy’s math.

Theoretically, some McCarthy opponents could vote “present” rather than for an alternative candidate in order to express opposition without jeopardizing McCarthy’s path to the gavel.

For instance, if 216 Republicans vote for McCarthy, 212 vote for Jeffries, two Republicans vote for other candidates and four vote “present,” McCarthy would be elected Speaker with a majority of all those voting for a candidate.

But the five most vocal McCarthy opponents have forecasted that they will not vote “present” — keeping McCarthy’s bid in further danger.

What happens if no candidate wins a majority?

If no candidate wins a majority of votes for Speaker on the first ballot, House lawmakers will vote again and again until a Speaker is elected.

In the event of multiple ballots, the House will not necessarily continue late into the night. The last time there were multiple ballots, the House adjourned until the following day after four failed ballots. Adjourning also allows members time to negotiate and strike deals.

But the House will be able to do little else. Until a Speaker is elected, it can’t adopt a rules package governing procedure in the House. For House Republicans, uncertainty about the Speaker election has led to a delay in the conference choosing contested committee chairs.

More detail (and some history) at the link