US and Russian deep states likely to be taken down in June black swan event
(benjaminfulford.net)
🌎 Fall Cabal! Fall! 🌍
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Here's the major author on the subject, Nicholas Taleb, giving the criteria for a BSE: "Fast forward to 2007, when Taleb coined the “black swan theory” in his book. According to Taleb, an event must fit three criteria in order to be considered a black swan. First, the event must be a surprise to the observer. Second, it must have a major effect (this effect can be positive, but black swan events are usually negative).
Finally, after the event occurs, it is rationalized by hindsight. In other words, people might say something like, “We should have seen this coming.” In reality, you can’t see a black swan coming. That’s what makes it a black swan."
https://www.distractify.com/p/black-swan-event-example
So the expert says you can't see one coming. This is a real problem for most predictors who are relying on statistics to model events. Was the pandemic a black swan event? Not if some people had planned it. Is a stock market crash a black swan? Maybe sometimes.
Unfortunately Taleb went full retard with the hoaxvid. He fell right into the trap that he bemoaned others for.
His ego got the best of him. Unsurprisingly.
Intellectual yet idiot. That was him.
It's true in his later books he seems to wander off. Overthinking. Thomas Kuhn got into that a little too. Even if covid had been a natural kind of epidemic, some things about it were perfectly predictable, like people hearing about a novel disease and panicking. The economic consequences were also very predictable. The part that was and will be a surprise to many was the toxic vaccines, but it seems to me that that was actually known and was only unexpected because of deceit. Not the same as a novelty.
He spent a lot of time talking about "via negativa", about the fact that MOST ailments/diseases are cured by REMOVING stuff, not adding stuff, about the fact that asceticism & diet (removing/detoxing) are important.
He also said that doctors justify their existence by prescribing pills etc because they need to be seen as "doing something" where most of the time the best approach is to STOP doing something (e.g. stop eating shit), instead of actively taking poisons.
Then the hoax hits and he IMMEDIATELY throws all his advice to others out the window, goes full additive (believe the hoax, take the poison etc etc) while presenting some 'mathematical' mumbo jumbo (bullshit basically) to justify his decision.
He literally embodied 100% what he was warning us about in his books. He threw away empiricism & the grandma approach and fully embraced propaganda & scientism. It was amazing, and sad, to watch.
or compromised
Isnt a black swan event in the eye of the beholder by definition?
It is a surprise to the observer, and I think that's the weak point in the definition. People are not equally informed or imaginative.