The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami Just Shifted Into A Higher Gear
(theeconomiccollapseblog.com)
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I am going to have to disagree on the principal that you are operating on the paradigm of the 20th century.
For us as nation to move away from McMansions and to create affordable living spaces we have to think outside of the box.
Currently many young adults and college students do live in cramped spaces but with little freedom or even a burden on their parents still living at home. Being able to offer more affordable living spaces may in fact allow mobility of the workforce and growth. The younger generations are more than willing to be more mobile to obtain pay raises compared to older generations but the lack of housing is a huge road block.
This is why President Trump has proposed ideas like brand new cities as well because sticking to the old paradigm isn't good. And like you have outlined it is hard to repurpose old commercial real estate due to how the layouts are constructed which reinforces why President Trump wants to plan out brand new cities from the ground up with 21st century mindset.
But instead of bull dozing and starting over there is an opportunity to create spaces which can cash flow which is the entire point of the commercial real estate industry.
All you are doing is changing the cash flow from commercial real estate to residential real estate.
Work from home, amazon/ebay, and ai/automation is going to make commercial real estate feel the pinch.
I saw this coming back from 2008 when the Great Recession hit and a sneak peak of that with the plandemic of 2020.
We are being pushed into that direction by big players with big money, so we must adapt or find a way to thwart that descent where "no one owns anything".
......You didn't read anything I said did you? I literally outlined why there's zero incentive to repurpose retail or office buildings into residential buildings. Yeah building new cities would work, but repurposing office and retail into residential pretty much never works unless it's HEAVILY subsidized by the government.
As I said, the biggest problems are the plumbing (You literally have to rip out 20+ floors of plumbing and replumb the entire building based on the new floor layout), the fire codes (Because residential firecodes are infinitely more strict than office or retail fire codes since the spaces are more confined, and fires are more likely), and just general weight, since all the added walls, plumbing, peoples crap, etc.)
You can preach all you want about "the greater good", but the people with actual money that build these buildings aren't going to just spend 100s of millions, or in some cases BILLIONS, of dollars "for the greater good".
There has to be some kind of incentive for them to do this. And assuming we're all correct and the income tax is going to be a thing of the past post-cabal.... Well, there goes the last actual incentive developers have to do anything like this.
If the LIHTC (Low Income Housing Tax Credit) is done away with because the federal government no longer collects a federal income tax, then there is literally ZERO incentive for any developer to take on a project like this.
What's far more likely, is these buildings will devolve into urban rot, leading to the cities to condemn them, eventually resulting in them being torn down 40-50 years inn the future, which then would make the land plots appealing to developers again for things like residential, or whatever the current money making niche is.
That's assuming office and retail completely fails and never comes back, which also isn't true. I wasn't planning on giving this detailed of a response, but since my financial nerdery is flowing, I might as well.
The reason that so many office and retail properties are failing isn't because people aren't going back to the office (they are, in a hybrid setup if nothing else), or that people aren't going to physical stores anymore (Has actually been increasing despite things like Amazon).
The reason, is that the owners got screwed on the interest rates for their loans. Commerical real estate isn't like regular residential real estate (Single family homes). The loan terms are vastly different.
Here's the basic outline for a CE loan. 5 years at X% with an adjustable interest rate.
As a result, in most cases, commercial real estate isn't a "buy and hold" game. It's usually more of a "buy, fix/build, hold a few years, sell" kind of game. CE owners rarely pay down the principal on their loans since they intend to sell them within one or two refinance cycles. People like Trump who outright own buildings worth hundred of millions or billions of dollars are REALLY rare.
What's currently happening is simple. The owners refinanced during that period a few years ago when interest rates where 1%~. Now, a few years later, we have record high inflation and sky high interest rates. So those refinanced buildings have had their debt payments skyrocket over the course of a few years. So much so, that they now no longer produce enough income to justify owning them.
THAT is why, retail and office are failing. Residential and hospitality haven't been hit yet, since they generally speaking have higher cap rates (The way you measure your cash flow), than Retail and Office. But they'll be hit soon enough as well.
Long story short, there's no way to give a large enough financial incentive to repurpose office and retail buildings into apartments, and office/retail isn't even really dead. Companies are just getting screwed on the interest rates.
No I read what you said but I disagree in that there are big real estate buyers that do think outside the box. Ben Mallah for example did this with John's pass in St Pete Florida where he took the second floor of commercial store fronts of John's pass and turned them into hotel rooms. He had to obtain the go ahead from city planners but yes it is possible. While true it was a challenge for the architects and engineers they made it happen and it is up to code!
I am fully aware of how commercial real estate is about buying, adding value and then flipping quickly. But that isn't going to magically happen with rates going down this time around because the work from home environment and ai/automation is going to accelerate. That assuming the rates drop fast enough which I do not think is very likely given recent word from the fed as rate hikes are very possible next month or in a few months.
In other words yes rates dropping helps ease the pressure on commercial real estate but that also holds true for residential real estate.
If we are playing a game of chicken right now with high rates you want to be holding the residential real estate bag versus commercial real estate. Yes, both are losing hands if held long term and the high rates do not let up. But moving forward lowering rates for commercial real estate isn't a magic bullet that is going to solve everything IMVHO.
My opinion is that even with lower rates that commercial real estate is really going to be a construct of the 20 century that is going to fade as we progress into the 21st century.