If Trump has it all, he has the goods on all the RINOs.
He doesn't need a single Democrat vote if they flip.
On the final vote, all six holdouts voted “present,” lowering the total number of votes cast to 428 and the majority required to win the gavel to 215. Those six “present” votes ensured that by holding on to the same 216 votes he received on the 14th ballot, McCarthy could secure the speakership.
Not sure How you can be so confident unless you are privy to the daily minutiae of all of congress's day.
With everything that has happened, I don't think it unreasonable to estimate the possibility of it happening.
If, as most everyone on this board believes, the WH are in control, it would not be a leap to conclude that levers of control on the RINOs couldn't be moved.
Likewise, those who are blackmailed vs. Those who are voluntarily part of team evil quite conceivably could have different motivations which could be ... addressed
I just see all the obstacles against it, along with the meager benefits it would reward.
Just because the WHs are in control doesn't mean that it's the WHs plan to put Trump in as SOH.
It just makes zero sense to do this. The only reason why it's even being mentioned is because of the segment of the population here that likes to verbally fantasize about using this way to become President again.
They think that this will fulfill his "back in 5 months" (paraphrasing here) statement.
But getting himself voted in as SOH, getting Biden AND Harris removed somehow (seeing as how the Senate would be the ones to vote to remove them via impeachment and the Senate is controlled by the Democrats, so not likely that will happen) and then getting himself placed as President would take MUCH longer than 5 months. Remember how long it Trump's impeachment trial took? Much longer than 5 months.
And if that all miraculously (because it would take several miracles) happens before the 2024 election, what happens? He only has a few months as President before the new President is elected. So he just traded a few months as President vs the 4 years he would have gotten when elected.
And if he doesn't take over as President and stays SOH, I don't even know if the SOH can campaign for President while being Speaker, constitutionally speaking. But even if they can, Trump is going to get blamed for all the fuck ups the House does while he's Speaker that it can't help but hurt his campaign. And that jeopardizes him winning 2024.
And if Biden and Harris are going to be removed as president and VP some other way, that will take just as long if not longer than impeachments. Haven't you ever paid attention to Congressional dealings before? They take forever to do nothing.
It's much simpler, and much faster, and much likelier that he will become President by winning the 2024 election. He can't campaign effectively while doing piddly-ass SOH stuff.
And what happens if he becomes SOH and the House continues with their habit of doing jack shit? Who gets the blame when the House fucks up? The SOH. Why bother with that nonsense?
The ONLY reason I see people going all-in on the SOH scenario is because they secretly believe Trump won't win 2024. That's it.
"Just because the WHs are in control doesn't mean that it's the WHs plan to put Trump in as SOH."
Agreed.
"It just makes zero sense to do this. The only reason why it's even being mentioned is because of the segment of the population here that likes to verbally fantasize about using this way to become President again."
Disagree, there is several reasons to want this, the least of which is a stick in the eye to Team Evil. At best is a quicker jump back in as president. Likely? No. But no chance? Hold your sweet bippy horses there, many people smarter than you or I have layed out the possibilities and there is a real path whether you want to admit it or not. I wouldn't touch the question if it was just butterflies and rainbows fantasy.
"They think that this will fulfill his "back in 5 months" (paraphrasing here) statement."
IIRC it was not framed like that, and alternate interpretations included securing the Republican nomination, which was in 5 mos. at the time.
The SoH is another interpretation.
"But getting himself voted in as SOH, getting Biden AND Harris removed somehow (seeing as how the Senate would be the ones to vote to remove them via impeachment and the Senate is controlled by the Democrats, so not likely that will happen) and then getting himself placed as President would take MUCH longer than 5 months."
Again, disagree. When congress wants to move, it can get stuff done in hours or days.
Again, Likely? No. Possible? Absolutely. Rolling it out as a possibility at this point is just foolishness.
"He only has a few months as President before the new President is elected. So he just traded a few months as President vs the 4 years he would have gotten when elected."
I admit I haven't researched it, but there are several provisions where serving as president does not count as a term. I believe IIRC this is one of them. I could be wrong, have to look it up.
"And if he doesn't take over as President and stays SOH...."
I don't believe he would take SOTH if it did not lead to the presidency, or at the very least the successful recovery of the nation.
"And if Biden and Harris are going to be removed as president and VP some other way, that will take just as long if not longer than impeachments. Haven't you ever paid attention to Congressional dealings before? They take forever to do nothing."
Again, you are talking about historical precedent. What in your mind tells you this time in our lives has been normal?
"It's much simpler, and much faster, and much likelier that he will become President by winning the 2024 election. "
Agreed.
"He can't campaign effectively while doing piddly-ass SOH stuff."
Oh so disagree. SOOO disagree. CSPAN would be a top watched channel just for the excitement.
"And what happens if he becomes SOH and the House continues with their habit of doing jack shit?"
See above, I don't believe he would do speaker if that was all that would happen. Trump doesn't like being bogged down, and the plan wouldn't do it I it means stopping.
"The ONLY reason I see people going all-in on the SOH scenario is because they secretly believe Trump won't win 2024. That's it."
If Trump has it all, he has the goods on all the RINOs.
He doesn't need a single Democrat vote if they flip.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-06/mccarthy-speaker-jan-6-anniversary
There's only 212 Democrats. The Republicans are in control of whomever becomes Speaker.
That's if the Republicans vote all the same. They didn't all vote to get rid of McCarthy.
It's simply not going to happen, no matter how much people fantasize about it.
Not sure How you can be so confident unless you are privy to the daily minutiae of all of congress's day.
With everything that has happened, I don't think it unreasonable to estimate the possibility of it happening.
If, as most everyone on this board believes, the WH are in control, it would not be a leap to conclude that levers of control on the RINOs couldn't be moved.
Likewise, those who are blackmailed vs. Those who are voluntarily part of team evil quite conceivably could have different motivations which could be ... addressed
I just see all the obstacles against it, along with the meager benefits it would reward.
Just because the WHs are in control doesn't mean that it's the WHs plan to put Trump in as SOH.
It just makes zero sense to do this. The only reason why it's even being mentioned is because of the segment of the population here that likes to verbally fantasize about using this way to become President again.
They think that this will fulfill his "back in 5 months" (paraphrasing here) statement.
But getting himself voted in as SOH, getting Biden AND Harris removed somehow (seeing as how the Senate would be the ones to vote to remove them via impeachment and the Senate is controlled by the Democrats, so not likely that will happen) and then getting himself placed as President would take MUCH longer than 5 months. Remember how long it Trump's impeachment trial took? Much longer than 5 months.
And if that all miraculously (because it would take several miracles) happens before the 2024 election, what happens? He only has a few months as President before the new President is elected. So he just traded a few months as President vs the 4 years he would have gotten when elected.
And if he doesn't take over as President and stays SOH, I don't even know if the SOH can campaign for President while being Speaker, constitutionally speaking. But even if they can, Trump is going to get blamed for all the fuck ups the House does while he's Speaker that it can't help but hurt his campaign. And that jeopardizes him winning 2024.
And if Biden and Harris are going to be removed as president and VP some other way, that will take just as long if not longer than impeachments. Haven't you ever paid attention to Congressional dealings before? They take forever to do nothing.
It's much simpler, and much faster, and much likelier that he will become President by winning the 2024 election. He can't campaign effectively while doing piddly-ass SOH stuff.
And what happens if he becomes SOH and the House continues with their habit of doing jack shit? Who gets the blame when the House fucks up? The SOH. Why bother with that nonsense?
The ONLY reason I see people going all-in on the SOH scenario is because they secretly believe Trump won't win 2024. That's it.
Wow, ok.
"Just because the WHs are in control doesn't mean that it's the WHs plan to put Trump in as SOH."
Agreed.
"It just makes zero sense to do this. The only reason why it's even being mentioned is because of the segment of the population here that likes to verbally fantasize about using this way to become President again."
Disagree, there is several reasons to want this, the least of which is a stick in the eye to Team Evil. At best is a quicker jump back in as president. Likely? No. But no chance? Hold your sweet bippy horses there, many people smarter than you or I have layed out the possibilities and there is a real path whether you want to admit it or not. I wouldn't touch the question if it was just butterflies and rainbows fantasy.
"They think that this will fulfill his "back in 5 months" (paraphrasing here) statement."
IIRC it was not framed like that, and alternate interpretations included securing the Republican nomination, which was in 5 mos. at the time.
The SoH is another interpretation.
"But getting himself voted in as SOH, getting Biden AND Harris removed somehow (seeing as how the Senate would be the ones to vote to remove them via impeachment and the Senate is controlled by the Democrats, so not likely that will happen) and then getting himself placed as President would take MUCH longer than 5 months."
Again, disagree. When congress wants to move, it can get stuff done in hours or days. Again, Likely? No. Possible? Absolutely. Rolling it out as a possibility at this point is just foolishness.
"He only has a few months as President before the new President is elected. So he just traded a few months as President vs the 4 years he would have gotten when elected."
I admit I haven't researched it, but there are several provisions where serving as president does not count as a term. I believe IIRC this is one of them. I could be wrong, have to look it up.
"And if he doesn't take over as President and stays SOH...."
I don't believe he would take SOTH if it did not lead to the presidency, or at the very least the successful recovery of the nation.
"And if Biden and Harris are going to be removed as president and VP some other way, that will take just as long if not longer than impeachments. Haven't you ever paid attention to Congressional dealings before? They take forever to do nothing."
Again, you are talking about historical precedent. What in your mind tells you this time in our lives has been normal?
"It's much simpler, and much faster, and much likelier that he will become President by winning the 2024 election. "
Agreed.
"He can't campaign effectively while doing piddly-ass SOH stuff."
Oh so disagree. SOOO disagree. CSPAN would be a top watched channel just for the excitement.
"And what happens if he becomes SOH and the House continues with their habit of doing jack shit?"
See above, I don't believe he would do speaker if that was all that would happen. Trump doesn't like being bogged down, and the plan wouldn't do it I it means stopping.
"The ONLY reason I see people going all-in on the SOH scenario is because they secretly believe Trump won't win 2024. That's it."
Absolute glowie statement.