A fren asked when I think the stock market will crash and here is my reply. First some background and then my answer.
Background:
January is the estimated time when the Federal Reserve - Reverse Repo Market runs out.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/
That is what is being used to fund the governments insane spending, because when the government borrows money, they have to sell a US Treasury Bond backing that money. The US Treasury trades their Bonds for the cash parked in the Reverse Repo Market.
In the just 3 weeks the govt has borrowed $550 Billion+
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1712217005992939952
The Reverse Repo Market has drained 100 Billion almost every week for a month except the 3rd week of October. The Reverse Repo is being used to immediately buy Treasury Bonds and keep the interest rates of them (yields) from shooting up further.
Japan who owns $1 Trillion of US Treasury Bonds is also on deaths door. Historically when Yen-to-Dollar is 150/$ then the Bank of Japan intervenes and sells some US Bonds to raise value of yen against the dollar. That's happened a couple of times this month.
When Reverse Repo runs out, Treasury Bonds are going to shoot through the roof. This will be the 2nd big crash.
My Answer:
What do I think will happen? Short answer: 2 crashes in stock market then devaluing dollar then CBDC then freedom.
1st dip will be big enough most Boomers will think that was the crash and put all their money back in the stock market. I expect it around end of October - November before Thanksgiving from the way things are going but it may happen later. Boomers and older are important because they own about 70% of US Wealth and getting their wealth is the ultimate goal.
https://www.marketingcharts.com/demographics-and-audiences/youth-and-gen-x-75103
Govt will ramp up borrowing like crazy causing Treasury Bonds to crash in value and their interest rates to shoot up, possibly above the federal reserve base interest rate. Boomer money not in stock markets will go into Treasury Bonds. They will falsely think they are a safe haven as they've been trained to think.
Banks go insolvent from decreased Treasury Bonds value and are unable to back up deposits. They go bankrupt selling anything they own to cover any costs they can, causing more supply of Treasury Bonds on market dumping price lower and yields higher. Govt keeps borrowing and spending.
Reverse Repo runs out of money. Treasury bonds must be sold on the open market where nobody wants to buy. Values drop at insane levels and their interest rates shoot through the roof.
This will be the 2nd big crash that wipes out the rest of stock market and retirement money. Along with the Derivatives (estatimated $Trillion - 4 Quadrillion value), the Futures Market and even the paper gold/paper silver. I expect this to happen January-February but i am likely wrong on the exact timing here. This is the big boy to worry about. Physical cash will be very valuable at this point and it'll be the time to go spend your cash you have left. Any electronic cash will be gone and you'll be unable to access it.
Gold and silver will spike up overnight and maybe a bit for crypto but it won't hit its peak yet.
Then the govt will keep borrowing but nobody will buy Treasury bonds. No worries, the Federal Reserve has a fix for that from a paper that came out in Jackson Hole, WI this summer
Presenting the Fed's Perfect Plan for U.S. Dollar Oblivion | BestEvidence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0u5h579ZeU
https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9726/JH_Paper_Duffie.pdf
In this paper, the Federal Reserve and Govt solves the problem of having no Treasury Bond Buyers on the market. Currently the Federal Reserve can only buy Treasury Bonds that have already been sold from the US Treasury. This paper suggests to do away with that and have the Federal Reserve directly buy Bonds from the US Treasury. This will double inflation increase as the Federal Reserve will have to print money to buy the Treasury Bonds and more money is printed for the US Treasury once the bonds are sold.
There will now be no incentive for the govt not to borrow to oblivion and the physical dollars will quickly become worthless so you'd better get rid of your cash by then. Gold/silver, Crypto, Bullets, Food, Resources.
People will have to come together and do whatever they can for each other to survive this mess. Crypto will shoot up in use at this time because of instant transaction, long distance payments, and exact pricing. This will eventually take over by the peoples choice.
Govt buildings will be burning, urban city dwellers starving, and the pain will be so bad that people beg for a CBDC to stop from starving. That is the Cabal's bet and they will issue a CBDC at this time.
The foil to their plan will be gold/silver and ultimately crypto because the Cabal/Central Bankers have less of their hands in crypto than gold/silver (central banks have been massively buying precious metals) and its more usable over long distances. They won't be able to control people conducting their own business and they will fail dramatically. I think the military will step in when people have made the choice and decide against Central Banks and their CBDCs.
This is my best guess at the moment. I am likely wrong somewhere especially on the timeline, but as the govt actions play out over time, they become more predictable.
What do you all think?
Yes and buy some pre 1965 us silver coins, they will be handy for small trades. I expect them to be unobtainable when people FOMO into the metal market.
Who is going to be doing small trades? not large box stores, or your 711/ gas station arab stores. The facebook market karens?
If all this happens the BLM riots will look like childs play. It will be a free for all. Every suburb outside of a city will be raided.
The only hope is a military intervention and national guard patrols.
The warehouses will still be full of food and supplies. They will quickly figure out how to take silver, that shit will spoil anyways and people are not stupid, they will want sillver.
I belive it will be more of a controlled demolition, I also have gobs of food and ammo and guns.....
The employees or owners would loot them themselves.
There is this fantasy here of a bartering system popping up with gold and silver. Like people are going to line up and trade coins.
If there is a collapse expect the walking dead universe without zombies. Everything will fall at once.
"Without" the zombies??
They're already here. But instead of walking around saying "brains...brains...", it's along the lines of "Boost us...Boost us..."
Sadly only half-joking.
I read an article from a guy that spent a few years during the Bosnian war. He said food was easy. What they traded was ammo.
A guy I did some work for has a secret basement with shitloads of ammo. He’s got an arsenal. Also has a 30k water storage tank and no telling what else I didn’t see.
I can’t imagine living without air conditioning in the summer. I’m not gonna make it.
Sounds like you just want to have fun.....
There will be people who have allot of something you want/need really bad and they may not want anything you have allot of. This is where your going to want silver.
Now if silver did go to say $500oz then your not going to be wanting to trade in oz everywhere you go so this is where the fractional silver comes into play. Specifically American because everybody and their grandmother recognizes it.
Thing is if the situation gets so bad that even the suburbs get raided then there will be no military coming to save you. These people will be saving their own. At least what hasn’t been sent to defend Israel or the Ukraine.
There are allot of people who are prepared for these situations and they have allot food, ammunition, medicine, alcohols, energy, all stored up and defended. I am guessing if you don’t understand the value of silver you are not one of those people. You will likely be one of those people running from the tranny dictator controlled city’s into the suburbs looking for somewhere to go with food and safety.
People will be there willing to help you and this is where silver will really start to make sense for you.
Seriously buy some. It’s dirt cheap imo and has always been valuable, like forever. The dollar will die all currency does but real money grows in value.
A 110 years ago silver quarter used to cost 25 cents now it cost about $5. That tells you allot. Shoot if war breaks out here and the dollar is no good that same quarter may save your life.
Well said!
I have silver but I also have about 10k to 15 k in reg coins .. 5 k in dollar coins 3k in Half dollars 5 k in quarters dimes nickels etc ,, Do you think this is worth hanging on to ,, I heard coins are not the same as paper bills , coins will always be good ,,, I don’t remember how it was explained but it made sense to me ,, do you or anyone reading this know ? Thank you!
In then sense that metal last longer than paper I can say yes. Idk to much about the value of coins that are not silver. I would imagine if some had errors they would have value.
Honestly though any of the modern coinage is made from commonly used cheap base metals and it is just currency, like the paper. Silver and gold are money. I am certainly not saying there are no circumstances that could lead to modern coinage having value. I guess at some point even base metals could be rare.
Like OP was saying cash/currency/ modern coins will be king for some weeks or months when the banks shut their doors.
Nickels are 75% copper and 25% nickel. Nickel has value now mainly because of the battery craze. also pre-1982 pennies are 95% copper. These two coins are the only real money left in circulation
If you believe that Federal Reserve Notes and more recent coins will lose most of their value (as do I), one strategy NOW could be to swap your 10k to 15k in regular coins for constitutional silver because it has actual value. Your current stash will only plunge in value, eventually becoming worthless.
A good argument could be made to swap ALL your excess FRNs and modern coins for precious metals. Expeditiously.
Once the panic starts, the opportunity to convert assets will become fleeting.
Are the coins face value or metal value
If the physical metal of the coin retains its value or increases in value, the coin will also still be good too!
This, very few people will have silver to trade. It'll be complete insanity. I do not expect this to happen. If it does, the plan failed.
so civil war? war for survival? how can MIL intervene if they all run to secure their loved ones ?