This was planned long ago.

There are 4 major sources of liquidity I'm looking at drying up this year. 2 are now gone.

• Evergrande finally got liquidated on January 29, 2024. That means this will finally show up as a loss on banks assets.

Deutsche Bank finally started lawyering up and filing liquidation lawsuits last week so it's assumed are heavily affected by Chinese Real Estate companies defaulting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUdUa4mBQGI

• Today the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) ends, a year after it started due to the Silicon Valley and Signature Bank Run. This kept liquidity going for all the banks that were underwater from US Treasuries dropping in value on their asset books. If they can't pay off the loan, the Federal Reserve takes the Treasury Bond collateral.

• The Reverse Repo market is at $444 billion left down from 2.5 Trillion in May-June 2023. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPTTLD/ The US Treasury uses this as a consequence free way to needlessly borrow money without it affecting US Treasury Bonds. US debt hit 34.5 Trillion and continues to rise at a fast rate. https://www.usdebtclock.org/

• The unwinding of the Japanese Carry Trade is the 4th and arguably biggest liquidity well to dry up. I currently don't have a good way of monitoring the progress other than looking at JPY-USD price https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USDJPY/

as well as Japanese Bond rates. https://www.tradingview.com/markets/bonds/prices-japan/

When USD-JPY starts going north of 150 or the bond yields start jumping dramatically, that's the time to pay attention.

Liquidity is the name of the game for keeping the world and US economy rolling. When that lubrication is gone, the gears grind up and something breaks and the system crashes.