If Raisi is indeed dead, the key takeaway is not really who succeeds him (that’s the 1st VP Mohammad Mokhber, but only as a caretaker for 50 days before an election).
It’s the fact that the next Supreme Leader is most likely Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Internal pundits had believed the competition to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader was down to Mojtaba and Raisi. If Raisi is dead, Mojtaba becomes heir apparent.
The post of President is relatively unimportant - it’s more for domestic affairs, not national security and ideological direction.
The Assembly of Experts, an 88-person body, appoints the next Supreme Leader upon the death or vacancy in office of the Supreme Leader.
A question is whether anyone else would rise to challenge Mojtaba in the internal machinations. If not, it’s his for the taking.
And then we are set for the Islamic Republic to open itself up (rightly) to accusations that it has effectively become a hereditary monarchy - just in radical Islamic clothing.
This would make it harder for the regime to differentiate itself from its predecessor Pahlavi government, which is becoming viewed more favorably in retrospect by Iranians today.
A question is whether anyone else would rise to challenge Mojtaba in the internal machinations. If not, it’s his for the taking.
I recall there were murmurings about Soleimani and steps he was taking to court Domestic support for a possible bid at Supreme Leader.
And then American Intelligence seemingly got their hands on basically his full classified schedule and travel itinerary. And then Trump took the opportunity to waste him with a Rocket. There were rumors in alternative spheres internal Domestic opponents sought to get him out of the way and deliberately leaked it. But no one took it seriously at the time.
And now the other major potential opponent ends up dead in a Helicopter Crash.
Perhaps we should start reconsidering the validity of those rumors.
Soleimani appeared to be defacto man in charge of Iran when Trump “wasted him”. CIA, Mossad, MI-6, and Deep State all acted pissed off, so he appeared to be one of theirs. Still not crystal clear who is on which side in Iran.
It is possible that he got flipped and then needed a “public death” and funeral in order to go underground to assist in liberation of Iran and prevention of nuclear war with Israel.
Came across this post explaining succession. The follow up post is worth reading as well. https://x.com/GLNoronha/status/1792235869795213546 . . . .
It’s the fact that the next Supreme Leader is most likely Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Internal pundits had believed the competition to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader was down to Mojtaba and Raisi. If Raisi is dead, Mojtaba becomes heir apparent.
The post of President is relatively unimportant - it’s more for domestic affairs, not national security and ideological direction.
The Assembly of Experts, an 88-person body, appoints the next Supreme Leader upon the death or vacancy in office of the Supreme Leader.
A question is whether anyone else would rise to challenge Mojtaba in the internal machinations. If not, it’s his for the taking.
And then we are set for the Islamic Republic to open itself up (rightly) to accusations that it has effectively become a hereditary monarchy - just in radical Islamic clothing.
This would make it harder for the regime to differentiate itself from its predecessor Pahlavi government, which is becoming viewed more favorably in retrospect by Iranians today.
I recall there were murmurings about Soleimani and steps he was taking to court Domestic support for a possible bid at Supreme Leader.
And then American Intelligence seemingly got their hands on basically his full classified schedule and travel itinerary. And then Trump took the opportunity to waste him with a Rocket. There were rumors in alternative spheres internal Domestic opponents sought to get him out of the way and deliberately leaked it. But no one took it seriously at the time.
And now the other major potential opponent ends up dead in a Helicopter Crash.
Perhaps we should start reconsidering the validity of those rumors.
Soleimani appeared to be defacto man in charge of Iran when Trump “wasted him”. CIA, Mossad, MI-6, and Deep State all acted pissed off, so he appeared to be one of theirs. Still not crystal clear who is on which side in Iran.
It is possible that he got flipped and then needed a “public death” and funeral in order to go underground to assist in liberation of Iran and prevention of nuclear war with Israel.