Ultimately which side benefits from this event?

I do not think this is a decisive factor. The entire thing about obtaining a winning position on the game board ala game theory is that you force the opposition into a position where the steps they take do them harm and ultimately accelerate or advance their losing.

Anyone and everyone is going to acknowledge how much this incident will become an advantage to Trump. But if it had been successful? I don't think we can overestimate how close a narrow shave this has been. Losing Trump would have been catastrophic, imo.

To imagine that a real incident could have been HW orchestrated makes no sense, but I find it highly implausible that this was 'staged' ie that Trump is acting, his detail is acting, and its all bull.