Welcome to General Chat - GAW Community Area

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Yesterdays General Chat

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– Retaining_H2O 5 points 56 days ago +5 / -0

A thought about what may be the "precipice event".

Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave located on the Baltic Sea, between Lithuania and Poland. The Kaliningrad city and Oblast is an isolated territory, roughly 412 miles west of the Russian border. It's the only ice-free Russian port on the Baltic Sea. Population is 500,000. It's also the home port of Russia's North Sea Navy.

Kaliningrad Oblast was part of the USSR, but when the Soviet Republic collapsed in 1991, it became separated from Russia by now independent nations, notably Poland and Lithuania, which are part of NATO.

Kaliningrad belonged to Germany, and was German territory up until 1945. After WWII, the Soviet Union occupied Kaliningrad and expelled the German population. Kaliningrad should rightfully belong to Germany (or Poland, who controlled it before Germany), and so should be rightful property of the European Union and be NATO Territory.

Russia has taken over Crimea, which was Ukrainian territory until recently, as well as seized other Eastern Ukrainian territories.

I bet the "precipice event" will involve the European Union and NATO declaring legal ownership of "occupied Kaliningrad", which should be rightfully called "Koenigsberg". Note in the agreement (below) that Kaliningrad was declared the property of the SOVIET UNION. It was NEVER given to Russia, and was never officially declared to be Russian property. Many former Soviet properties became independent nations since 1990... so there is precedence for Kaliningrad to become either independent or to return to German ownership.

Under the Potsdam Agreement of 1 August 1945, the city became part of the Soviet Union pending the final determination of territorial borders. This final determination eventually took place on 12 September 1990 when the Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany was signed.

"VI. CITY OF KOENIGSBERG AND THE ADJACENT AREA The Conference examined a proposal by the Soviet Government that pending the final determination of territorial questions at the peace settlement, the section of the western frontier of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics which is adjacent to the Baltic Sea should pass from a point on the eastern shore of the Bay of Danzig to the east, north of Braunsberg – Goldep, to the meeting point of the frontiers of Lithuania, the Polish Republic and East Prussia.

The Conference has agreed in principle to the proposal of the Soviet Government concerning the ultimate transfer to the Soviet Union of the city of Koenigsberg and the area adjacent to it as described above, subject to expert examination of the actual frontier."

The President of the United States and the British Prime Minister supported the proposal of the Conference at the forthcoming peace settlement.

Now, onto the "Precipice Event". I bet the EU and NATO will declare legal ownership of Kaliningrad, just as Russia is claiming legal ownership of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. We will see sudden NATO and EU moves to blockade Kaliningrad, both Naval blockade and land based through Lithuania and Poland. No goods in or out, no flights in or out. We may also see NATO troops trying to move in to secure the territory.

The whole thing would be to set up a bargain with Russia to end the Ukrainian War; Kaliningrad is Russian territory only if Crimea and the Eastern Oblasts of Ukraine are returned to Ukraine.

Of course, this would bring the entire situation to the brink of WWIII and possible nuclear exchange.... the precipice.

One thing to watch is that Lithuania has recently developed plans See Article since July for evacuation or relocation of up to 1/4th of it's 2.5 Million population, mainly women, children, elderly and disabled... in case of war. Why only Lithuania? There is no other NATO country making such plans.

The precipice standoff and subsequent threats exchanged, military mobilization, national security implementation (including possible Martial Law or National Curfews, military on the streets) might be used as the excuse to delay or cancel the U.S. Presidential election in November.

That would be an aggressive move by NATO and the EU, but it would be the only way to save face vs. suffering a complete beating by Russian forces in Ukraine. :>)

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– Strelnieks 1 point 56 days ago +1 / -0

This frog has been watching the region closely. There's been a lot of big talk but no action, which is a good thing. Lithuania espoused cutting off the rail connection to Kaliningrad and dropped it. All the Baltic States have also backpedaled hard with calls for their own specific military escalation. Will report when and if the regional local news action becomes post worthy.

The precipice you hypothesized of EU seizing control... well that would essentially be Crimea 2.0. The Russians have a Naval port in Kaliningrad, same as they did in Crimea. The RU constitution specifically states for that reason, plus the Russian citizenry there too... that they must and will stop annexation of the Federation and it's protect it's people's.

We all know these people are stupid, but even the local neighboring populations know this intimately. They will not risk their own territory and populations for the sake of seizing what is essentially a small tourist, shipping, and military hub. It would be like another country attempting to attack and seize Norfolk + Colonial Williamsburg in terms of size and scope.