‘We’re gonna win, maybe bigger than anyone understands’.- Trump
(nitter.poast.org)
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There are only 15% core liberals. Another 16% legacy democrat voters. They have to get to 51% using propaganda and voter fraud. It used to be 3% for a long time, then it went to about 5% with Kerry. It jumped to 10% with Obama and jumped again to 15% with Hillary. And again to at least 20% with Biden. I believe that Trump will both take big chunks out of the cheating and gain around 20 million votes.
Where are you getting these numbers?
Law of large numbers calculations using county populations. Tempered with other factors. I have been doing this ever since’76. Republicans confided in me back then that they just accepted the 3% as a cost of doing business such that the people would have confidence in the elections.
Is there anything online that you can point me towards so I can try to learn more about it?
That must be a hell of a task. How many thousands and thousands of counties did you have to go through in order to get numbers for the entire country?
A little over 3,000 counties and county equivalents in the territories. After each election there is a breakdown. I am not sure where it is archived. One key is that the election participation rate does not change very much across the country except for a few small outliers. Although in 2020 the deep blue city counties made themselves outliers by exceeding 100% of registered voters or very close to it.