I came across a video on Telegram of a guy who said he'd heard about Mark Halperin saying that early voting numbers are looking REALLY good for Trump, that Trump may have already won from the early voting alone, and that we may even know the results on Election Day morning. After doing some digging, it turns out, that's not exactly what Halperin actually said, but it was enough to grab my attention nonetheless.

Upon watching this guy's video, I got a little jolt of Hopium, meanwhile asking myself these types of questions:

"Are there states that are publishing actual vote tallies from early voting?? I've never heard of that before - is this something new? What is this Halperin guy basing his prediction on exactly?" I'd never heard of such a thing as published/publicly available vote tallies prior to Election Day poll closures, so my Hopium was neutralized by my 'data analyst' skepticism pretty quickly. Thus, it necessitated doing some digging...

Here's the video I'm talking about (please watch this 1-min video first to establish context): https://t.me/TarotByJanineChannel/19359 (Note: There was no link provided to the original source and I don't know who the guy is in the video).

I looked up this Mark Halperin guy to discover that he's a political analyst who's on NewsMax & has his own podcast too. Then I found the video of Mark Halperin actually talking about it, and in this video, he said we could know "BEFORE Election Day" who won the election: https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1848764658351509710 (Worth nothing: This Halperin video was posted on 10/22/24, so things could have shifted/changed since then).

And I also found an article citing what Halperin was saying about this topic, which the guy in the video seems to be referencing. Here's a couple key quotes they included in the article:

• "If the early vote numbers stay the way they are—and that's a big if—we'll almost certainly know before Election Day who's going to win."

• "Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can partially understand the data, we'll know Donald Trump is going to win on Election Day."

**Note: These two quotes actually contradict themselves - one quote says we'll know the presidential winner "BEFORE Election Day" & the other quote says "ON Election Day."

Based on this Newsweek article at https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-early-voting-trump-president-mark-halperin-1973148 (note it's hard to ignore all the liberal bias baked into the article), Mark Halperin is basing his assessment purely on early voter turnout tied to voters' PARTY AFFILIATION (and not all states even have party affiliations tied to their registered voters).

If this article is accurately quoting Halperin, he is NOT basing his assessment on WHO the early voters actually voted FOR (as in ballot tallies of vote totals per candidate). Per the article, the only data that Halperin is going on is the party affiliation associated with the early voters in the states that even hold/require that piece of data in their voter registrations, much less make that data publicly available.

Being a data hound myself, this makes me less confident about the veracity of Halperin's prediction/assessment, as much as I wanted to dance around about it. If there was some data in pivotal states on not just party affiliation early voter turnout numbers, but actual BALLOT tallies of HOW they voted, that would be far more meaningful. But Halperin doesn't have that data (nor should he, IMO).

Based on this single factor data point (party affiliations of early voters - where available) that indicates a GOP lead in the quantity of early voters (vs. Dem party-associated early voters), I do see a potential upside beyond that little nugget of raw data.

My hypothesis is there's a percentage of Dem-registered voters who didn't change their party affiliation before this general election, but who DID change their candidate of choice (to Trump) after going through this 4 years of living hell that the Biden/Harris admin has unleashed upon all of us. Obviously, there's no way to quantify that hunch into a percentage, but even a shift of a mere 2% of Dems converting to Trump voters could be meaningful enough to swing a battleground state, no?

After seeing that video, I got especially interested in this because Pres. Trump keeps saying at his recent rallies that he's "doing really well" in the early voting. That repeated message from Trump made me wonder if he actually has some way of knowing how the voting stats are really going (i.e., via input from military intel and/or getting some stats from election officials) re: HIS number of votes vs. Commie-la's and Trump is trying to offer us some reassurance beforehand so we're not having meltdowns over all the rampant cheating we're already seeing across the country.

One of the key things I also wanted to find out is if there any states that actually tabulate ballot counts of who the early votes were cast FOR (meaning which candidates received what quantities of votes) BEFORE Election Day. But even if actual vote counting is being done prior to Election Day, I don't think that would/should be publicly available data anyway since it could definitely impact voter turnout.

Well, come to find out, some states have changed their election laws since 2020 to allow candidate vote counting (of mail-in ballots at least) to commence PRIOR to Election Day. Sorry for the (total Lib outlet) Yahoo News link, but this article covered the topic better than others:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ballot-counting-rules-differ-across-110000924.html

Here's a list of states allowed to count/tabulate mail-in ballots prior to Election Day poll closures:

•AZ can start counting mail-in ballots upon receipt

•GA can start counting mail-in ballots as of 10/21

•MI can start counting mail-in ballots as of 10/28

•NV can start counting mail-in ballots upon receipt

•NC can "partially process" mail-in ballots during Oct.

•PA can start processing mail-in ballots at 7:00am (local time) on Election Day

•WI can start processing mail-in ballots at 7:00am (local time) on Election Day

That's all I've got on this. Just wanted to share my research/vetting on this subject in case it's of interest.